Thaioil Weekly Oil Market and Outlook as of 17 January 2022

Thai Oil expects West Texas crude oil prices to move at a range of 80-85 US dollars per barrel this week.
Brent crude oil moved at a range of 83-88 US dollars per barrel.

Trend of crude oil price situation (17 – 21 Jan. 65)

The price of crude oil is likely to continue rising. after the market was driven by the tight supply of global crude oil. from the unresolved political conflicts in Libya and Kazakhstan while world oil demand continues to improve The weaker U.S. dollar has also increased the attractiveness of crude oil contracts among investors holding other currencies. However, the market is still under pressure from the coronavirus pandemic. -19 Omicron species

The main factors that are expected to affect the oil price situation this week:

– World crude oil supply continues to be pressured by political tensions in Kazakhstan. In the wake of people’s protests against the government over the sharp rise in liquefied petroleum (LPG) prices. Recently, the government of Kazakhstan resigned. And the country has declared a state of emergency in Manghestau and Almaty for two weeks, or from 5 to 19 Jan, potentially affecting world oil supplies. Kazakhstan currently produces 1.6 million barrels of oil per day. and the situation of political conflict in Libya As a result, Libya’s crude oil production is less than expected. However, the political situation in Kazakhstan and Libya has eased. And Libya could resume crude oil production. But still have to keep an eye on the situation to see if the conflict will come back or not.

– The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts global oil demand will return to near or greater levels before the COVID-19 outbreak, while crude oil production will also increase. The same in 2022 by EIA forecasts US crude oil production. increased by an average of 12.4 million barrels per day in 2023.

– US dollar value depreciating against other major currencies After the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), which reflects inflation at the highest level in 40 years, it has made investments in crude holdings more attractive to currency investors. Other, however, rising inflation may cause the US Federal Reserve or the Fed’s use of a strict monetary policy by raising interest rates faster in the beginning of March 65

– Situation of the spread of the COVID-19 virus The omikron strain continues to spread in many countries around the world. The latest number of confirmed cases worldwide is more than 300 million, while the death toll is more than 5 million as reported by the World Health Organization (WHO). -19 is the most, accounting for 73% of the total cumulative number of infections. Recently, Germany found more than 80 thousand infected in a single day. It is predicted that if the number of infected people continues to increase The German government may again take strict measures to contain the epidemic.

– Keep an eye on the meeting to revive the Iran Nuclear Agreement (JPCOA) at the end of Jan. 65 following the latest talks between the United States. And Iran, beginning on Dec. 27, 64, has made more progress after Iran’s new negotiating representatives are ready to cooperate with the world’s powers to find an agreement on various issues. However, Iran wants to to the US All sanctions were lifted as the United States and Europe remain susceptible to Iran’s breach of the higher uranium storage agreements outlined in the agreement. and may lead to the production of nuclear weapons Affecting Iran’s oil exports This is what Iran is most concerned about.

– Economics to watch this week, including China’s December retail sales and industrial production, may have increased more than expected. The UK’s November unemployment rate and the EU’s December inflation rate.

Summary of the oil price situation last week (10 – 14 Jan 20)

West Texas crude rose $4.92 a barrel last week to $83.82 a barrel, as well as Brent crude rose $4.31 to $86.06 a barrel. The bid averaged $83.88 a barrel, supported by US crude inventories. which was lower than expected by the EIA report the amount of US crude inventories For the week ending Jan. 7, 65 fell by more than 4.6 million barrels to 413.3 million barrels, more than 1.9 million barrels analysts had expected. OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) are still struggling to increase crude oil production to meet its targets.