Crude oil prices dropped slightly. Due to the COVID-19 epidemic situation in Europe and supply that is likely to increase from the oil drain from strategic reserves from the United States and China.
Crude oil prices dropped slightly. Due to the COVID-19 epidemic situation in Europe and supply that is likely to increase from the oil drain from strategic reserves from the United States and China.
Thai Oil expects West Texas crude to move at a range of 74-81 USD a barrel, while Brent crude is at a range of 76-82 USD a barrel.
Trend of crude oil price situation (22 – 26 Nov 21)
Crude oil prices tend to decline slightly. After the market has been pressured by the number of people infected with COVID-19 in Europe that has risen again while crude oil supply tends to increase As the United States and China discussed emissions from Strategic Crude Stockpiles (SPR) in an effort to ease high crude prices, however, oil demand continued to be driven by Asian openings. And natural gas prices in Europe tend to remain highly stable due to increased demand in winter. In addition, natural gas supply tends to be tight following the disputes at the border of Belarus.
The main factors that are expected to affect the oil price situation this week:
– The World Health Organization (WHO) has reported the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19. Daily in Europe, ending on 11 Nov. 64, increased by 3.4 hundred thousand, or 5% from the previous week. The number of new infections rising in Europe is more than 60% of the daily number of infections worldwide. As the number of infected people has increased again, some European countries such as Austria and Germany have increased restrictions on social activities to reduce the rate of infection in the country. pressure on economic recovery and oil demand
– The demand for oil will continue to increase, driven by the shift from fuel to oil instead of natural gas. After natural gas prices tend to remain highly stable due to the continued tight supply of natural gas in Europe. It has been affected by the President of Belarus considering the closure of natural gas pipelines to Europe. in retaliation for the EU’s threat of increasing trade sanctions against Belarus. from the dispute on the border of Belarus and Poland
– US crude oil production There is a tendency to increase from the continuous increase in the number of crude oil drilling rigs. by Baker Company Hughes reported that the number of U.S. crude oil rigs for the week ending Nov. 5 rose four from the previous week to 450 rigs, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects. Shale oil production will increase by 0.1 million barrels per day from 8.2 million barrels per day in November to 8.3 million barrels per day in December.
– The United States and China held talks to try to ease high oil prices at the Virtual Summit on Nov. 16 after OPEC rejected US demands. To increase production more than the original agreement, with the United States asking China to consider draining its strategic reserves (SPR) to ease market tightness. Recently, China’s National Food Service and Reserve Factors Revealed that it is preparing to drain crude oil from stockpiles as demanded by the United States.
– The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised down its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2021. In its November 21 report, demand was stable from the October 21 issue. World oil demand in 2021 will increase by 5.5 million barrels per day compared to the previous year. touched an average of 96.3 million barrels per day. However, the IEA expects the world oil market to enter a surplus as supply gradually increases from OPEC Plus and the US. while demand recovery is pressured by COVID-19 in Europe that has come back to spread again
– US inflation in October 64 rose for the eighth straight month and hit its highest level in more than 30 years since 1990, raising investor concerns that the Federal Reserve May raise interest rates sooner than expected, causing the dollar to rise to a high of more than 16 months on the strength of the US dollar. As a result, investments in crude oil contracts are less attractive. For investors holding other currencies
– The economy to watch this week is China’s central bank interest rate decision. US Gross Domestic Product Q3 Eurozone Industrial Purchasing Managers Index, Nov. 21, UK Industrial Purchasing Managers Index, Nov.
Summary of the oil price situation last week (15 – 19 Nov 19)
West Texas Intermediate crude fell $4.69 to $76.10 a barrel, as well as Brent fell $3.28 to $78.89 a barrel. Dubai closed an average of $81.07 a barrel after pressure from the US dollar. which strengthened from the US inflation figures. that rose to its highest level in 30 years, causing investors to worry that the Federal Reserve Or the Fed will raise interest rates faster than expected. However, oil demand continues to be supported by higher oil demand in Asia following the easing of lockdowns in several countries. In addition, oil prices were driven by US crude stockpiles. For the week ending Nov. 12, the decline was more than 2.1 million barrels, contrary to the expected increase of 1.4 million barrels.
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