Thaioil Weekly Oil Market and Outlook as of 4 July 2022

Thai Oil expects West Texas crude prices to move at a range of 105-115 USD a barrel, while Brent crude is at a range of 110-120 USD a barrel.

Trend of crude oil price situation (4-8 Jul 65)

Oil prices are expected to remain at a high level continuously. from concerns about tight supply from the unrest and the limited excess capacity of the OPEC Plus group. In addition, prices are also supported by the expected growth in oil demand during the driving season and the opening of the city. China, however, will be pressured by concerns about global economic growth that is likely to be pressured by rising inflation. including the volume of crude oil production of OPEC Plus and the United States expected to increase

Important factors that are expected to affect the oil price situation this week.

– US crude oil inventory expected to decrease after continued high oil demand by the US Energy Information Administration US crude oil inventory report For the week ending Jun 24, it was down 2.8 million barrels, more than analysts’ forecast of a 569,000 barrel drop, as US refineries declined more than 2.8 million barrels. Increased refining capacity to the highest level since 2018

– Unrest situation in Libya affecting the volume of crude oil production The protests in Libya prompted the national oil company to announce Force Majeure for more crude exports. As a result, production is expected to drop to 600,000 barrels per day. This is a relatively large drop from the normal level of around 1.0 – 1.2 million barrels per day.

– OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) continue to increase production according to the original agreement to increase production to around 0.648 million barrels per day in August 65 to alleviate the current tight supply. However, the market. Still worried that the supply will not be able to increase any more. After many countries have started to have a low level of excess capacity (Spare Capacity)

– The G7 Leaders’ Summit last June 26-28, 65 discussed how to curb Russia’s price cap to limit Russian energy exports. Additional conditions have been imposed through the use of marine insurance mechanisms. Currently, the G7 countries are in discussions with China and India. The current major importer of Russian crude oil. However, analysts expected the effect of the measure to be limited due to requires cooperation of many countries And Russia may have to cut production to allow prices to rise instead.

– US crude oil production tends to increase after the manufacturer increased drilling As oil prices rose, Baker Hughes reported drilling volumes rose one rig to a two-year high since March of around 595 rigs, marking further increases. for more than 24 consecutive months As a result, the latest crude oil production has risen to above 12.1 million barrels per day.

– Economics to watch this week include the China Services Purchasing Managers’ Index in June and the U.S. Manufacturing and Management Purchasing Managers’ Index in June, which are expected to rise when compared to the previous month

Summary of the oil price situation last week (27 Jun – 1 Jul 65)

West Texas Intermediate crude fell $1.14 to $108.43 a barrel, as well as Brent fell $3.46 to $111.63 a barrel. Dubai crude oil averaged $106.17 a barrel after being pressured by concerns about a slowing global economy. However, prices were supported by concerns about tighter crude supply. Due to the downward trend of Russian production and unrest in Libya and Ecuador. This affected both countries’ crude oil production and exports. In addition, prices were supported by US crude inventories. The downgrade was more than analysts had expected. after the refinery increased its production capacity to meet the increasing demand