“The 4th quarter earnings are going to be weakened”…Samsung Electronics recommendation The stock market following one after another, why?

Although Samsung Electronics posted good results in the third quarter, it does not seem to have a significant impact on the share price.

It is evaluated that concerns over a full-fledged earnings decline from the fourth quarter are weighing down the stock price.

However, as the stock price precedes earnings, the stock market is offering mixed expectations that the stock price will rebound from the end of the year, reflecting expectations for a rise in semiconductor prices in the second half of next year.

According to the stock market on the 10th, Samsung Electronics fell 2.32 percent from 73,000 won to 71,500 won last week.

On the 5th and 6th, the prices were 71,400 won and 71,200 won, respectively, recording the lowest levels for two days in a row. The closing price on the 8th also reached 71,500 won, the lowest of the year.

In particular, the 3rd quarter results announced on the 8th were not enough to raise the stock price. On the 8th, Samsung Electronics announced that its operating profit for the third quarter was tentatively counted at 15.8 trillion won. It is the second largest amount in history after 17.57 trillion won in the third quarter of 2018. In addition, sales reached a record high of 73 trillion won. This was the first time that Samsung Electronics’ quarterly sales exceeded 70 trillion won.

But the stock price was volatile. On good performance, it rose more than 1% immediately after opening, but eventually closed down. On the 7th, the day before the earnings announcement, Samsung Electronics rose only 0.42% while the KOSPI rebounded 1.76%.

Securities analysts predict that year-end stock prices will rebound

Fears about fourth-quarter earnings are having a bigger impact on share prices. Based on the Fn Guide, Samsung Electronics’ 4Q operating profit forecast is 15.63 trillion won.

This is lower than the 15.8 trillion won announced in the third quarter. In addition, the forecast for the fourth quarter is being lowered as time goes by, including 15.82 trillion won in July, 15.72 trillion won in August, 15.71 trillion won in September, and 15.63 trillion won this month. Securities analysts expect Samsung Electronics’ operating profit to drop to around 13 trillion won in the first and second quarters of next year after its earnings decline from the fourth quarter. This is because semiconductor prices are expected to weaken from the fourth quarter to the first half of next year.

Recently, Taiwan’s semiconductor market research firm TrendForce predicted that DRAM prices would drop 3-8% and NAND flash prices 0-5% in the fourth quarter.

Based on the operating profit of Samsung Electronics’ semiconductor division, it is responsible for more than half of the company’s earnings. It is analyzed that the semiconductor division was responsible for more than 10 trillion won of the company-wide operating profit of 15.8 trillion won in the third quarter.

However, the stock market is slowly predicting that Samsung Electronics’ stock price will start to rebound from November of this year. Samsung Electronics, which stayed at 80,000 won for over half a year from February to early August, and was called ‘Palman Electronics’, is now pushed back to the low 70,000 range. However, as the semiconductor market recovers in the second half of next year, the stock price is expected to rebound from the end of this year.

Kim Yang-jae, a researcher at KTB Investment & Securities, said, “Considering the current supply and demand, as memory inventories increase in the first quarter of next year, the decline in memory prices is expected to expand until the second quarter.” Memory prices are also expected to rebound, but assuming that memory makers’ stocks lead the industry by about six months, the stock is expected to recover from November this year.”

Lee Soon-hak, a researcher at Hanwha Investment & Securities, also said, “The stock price is already reflecting the entry into a downcycle of the memory industry. said.

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