Mr. Poon Panichphiboon, Money Market Strategist, Capital Market Krung Thai Bank revealed that the baht opened this morning (10 January) at 33.44 baht per dollar. “appreciated” from the previous day’s close at 33.54 baht per dollar Look at today’s baht frame. it is expected to be at the level 33.30-33.60 baht per dollar
Regarding the trend of the baht, we believe that the baht has been strengthening recently. Still the same factor, in the hope of returning Chinese tourists This is reflected in the buying pressure of foreign investors in Thai assets. Including the hope that the Fed may slow the acceleration of interest rates. which weakens the dollar along with the increase in gold prices
However, we believe that the atmosphere in the market may start to become more cautious. During the gradual awareness of the Fed chairman’s statement, which is expected The Fed chairman will reiterate the need to continue raising interest rates. to control inflation This view may help the dollar to reverse some strength. But probably not many as market players await Thursday’s CPI inflation report.
In addition to the Fed Chairman’s statement, we should be wary of the BOJ Governor Kuroda’s statement as if the BOJ governor indicated support for an accommodative monetary policy to the It may put pressure on the Yen to fluctuate on the depreciation side This may lead to continued appreciation of the dollar too.
In this regard, we assess that the baht continues to move sideways (it may gradually appreciate), with an important resistance zone around 34.00 baht per dollar. While the initial support zone will be in the range of 33.25-33.30 baht per dollar.
In addition, market players are eagerly awaiting the Fed chairman’s speech today. Including earnings reports for all banking and financial stocks. Causing market players to be more cautious and not dare to accept too many risks, resulting in the S&P500 index closing the market -0.08%
The recent high volatility of the baht reflects the need for more hedging tools. make us recommend Entrepreneurs should use a more diversified exchange rate hedging strategy. Especially the use of options, which will increase the efficiency of hedges during the period of heavy market volatility.
Players of the financial market of the United States began to gradually sell and take profits from some risky assets after the stock market of the United States Rising hot during the last Friday. according to the hope that the Fed may delay accelerating interest rates (according to CME’s FedWatch Tool, market players raise the chance of a +0.25% rate hike at the next meeting to 80%).
In Europe, the STOXX600 index continued to gain more than +0.88%, supported by better than expected economic data from Europe, such as the Sentix investor confidence index which continued to improve. Including Germany’s industrial production (Industrial Production) in November it grew better than expected. In addition, concerns about the possibility of accelerating the interest rates of the main central banks have eased. Encouraged tech stocks and similar growth stocks in Europe to rise hotly, such as ASML +6.4%, Adyen +3.2%
in the bond market Opinions of Market Players Expecting the Fed to Delay Accelerating Rates As a result, the 10-year US bond yield continued to fall to 3.53% from 3.88% at the end of last year. Market players will wait to assess the Fed’s interest rate outlook through statements from the Fed chairman and Fed officials. Including important peaks such as CPI inflation, in the short term, the US 10-year bond yield can swing sideways near 3.50% before such factors materialize.
in the currency market The dollar continued to weaken against the major currencies. After market players still expect the Fed to slow the acceleration of interest rates leading to the latest The dollar index (DXY) fell by 103 points again. The depreciation of the dollar Along with the contraction of the 10-year bond yield, the United States has helped to boost gold prices. (COMEX gold contract for delivery in February) has risen near the resistance zone at a level of 1,885 dollars per ounce. Causing players in the market to gradually come to sell and profit gold Pressure gold prices to fall back close to the level of 1,874. dollars per ounce.
For today, the main highlight that will affect financial markets is Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s statement, which we believe, if financial markets are a risk during this period, in the hope that the Fed will slow down the progress, Interest rates, Fed chairman. It may try to reduce such expectations of market players. by sending a signal to emphasize the situation that the Fed needs to continue raising interest rates and can keep the policy rate high until the Fed controls inflation.
In addition, during the period before the market realizes the statement of the feeding chairman, the market players will wait to watch. Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s statement that his views on Japan’s economic outlook will be released. Including the BOJ’s monetary policy direction after market players began to assess that the BOJ could use a tighter monetary policy this year ), which has resulted in the Japanese Yen fluctuating in the stronger side.
