Mr. Poon Panichphiboon, Money Market Strategist, Capital Markets BankKrung Thai he revealed that bahtopened this morning (January 4) at 34.41 baht per dollar “appreciating slightly” from the previous day’s close at 34.44 baht per dollar, looking framedbaht todayit is expected to be at the level of 34.30-34.50 baht per dollar
fortrend baht The slight appreciation of the baht last night was seen to be Driven by Gold Profit Transaction Flow This eased the pressure from the appreciation of the dollar.
However, in the short term, the baht may gain support from the strengthening side due to hopes of a recovery in the tourism sector. of the return of Chinese tourists This is reflected through the perspective of foreign players who still want to increase their short USTHB positions (look at the appreciation of the baht).
Including net buying of Thai stocks, in particularshareIn the reopening theme, the baht has a chance to strengthen to test the support in the 34.25-34.30 zone. baht per dollar (The baht strengthened to test the zone the previous day. After appreciation, dropped to 34.50 baht per dollar. according to our assessment)
However, caution should be taken against potential volatility. If the market closes to more risk and encourages the dollar to continue appreciating, but we think that if the dollar appreciates there may not be pressure on the baht to depreciate too much, passing through the resistance zone around 34.50-34.60 baht per dollar easily
In addition, there is movementbahtThe recent high volatility reflects the need for more diversified hedging tools. make us recommend Entrepreneurs should use a more diversified exchange rate hedging strategy. Especially the use of options, which will increase the efficiency of hedges during the period of heavy market volatility.
The US financial market Still in a risk-off state (Risk-Off) amid concerns about the US economic slowdown. and concerns about the possibility of a feed rate rise. (Which market players will wait to keep an eye on the latest Fed meeting minutes and US labor market data report), causing the S&P500 index to close -0.40%. Still facing pressure from a drop in major stocks such as Tesla -12% after car supplies grew less than expected and Apple -3.7% due to concerns about the impact of the outbreak of COVID-19 in China on Apple production Including the downward trend in demand for iPhones.
As for European stocks, the STOXX600 Index rose +1.22%, supported by gains in Healthcare stocks (Novo Nordisk +2.8%, Novartis +2.7%) amid concerns about the global economic slowdown. Market players are looking for defensive stocks such as Healthcare. However, European stocks faced pressure due to a sharp drop in energy stocks (Equinor -5.6%, TotalEnergies -1.7%) following a drop in crude oil prices due to the Concerns about the spread of COVID-19 in China, including the appreciation of the dollar
in the currency market The dollar turned stronger against the main currencies. after the US financial market Still in a closed position. And market players are waiting to keep an eye on the Fed’s monetary policy direction. Through the minutes of the latest Fed meeting and the latest US labor market data report, the dollar index (DXY) has risen to almost 104.5 points again. But market hedges and the US 10-year bond yield, which remained close to 3.76%, helped gold prices (the COMEX gold contract for delivery in February) to rise and swing close to the 3.76% level $1,842 per ounce And there are moments when gold prices rise near the resistance zone around $1.850 per ounce. makes us look Some market players may gradually take profits on gold and the flow of such transactions contributes to the appreciation of the baht. Even if the dollar is stronger.
For today, market players will await important economic data reports on the US side. Manufacturing purchasing managers’ index from ISM (Manufacturing PMI) in December and job openings (JoLTs Job Openings) in November. the market estimates that the US economic outlook and a slowdown in the global economy may lead to economic activity in the manufacturing sector continuing to contract, which is reflected in the manufacturing PMI which will fall to 48.5 points (it the index below 50 points means contraction)
In addition, the impact of the slowing economy will lead to many companies adjusting their employment plans, causing job openings to continue to trend down to 10 million jobs from the previous high of 11.9 million. reflect that the US labor market become less tight But overall it is still strong.