Ms. Chayavadee Chai-anan, Senior Director of Corporate Communications Department Bank of Thailand (BOT) revealed that The Thai economy in February 2022 is still in the direction of recovery. Exports of goods increased somewhat in line with improving foreign demand. At the same time, the number of foreign tourists increased from the previous month. Following the re-opening of registration for entry into the country through the Test & Go system, there was a slight improvement in industrial production. However, private consumption and investment declined slightly fromLast month, due to the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak, Omicron strains for government expenditure grew from both current and federal capital expenditures.
On the stability front, headline inflation increased in line with energy and raw food prices, as well as accelerated core inflation as the price of instant food in the labor market gradually improved, but overall remained fragile. For the current account, the deficit decreased from the previous month in line with the increase in trade balance whileThe balance of income, services and money transfers continues to have deficits. The details of the Thai economy are as follows:
The value of exports of goods that have eliminated seasonal factors increased slightly in several categories, such as the category that moved in accordance with oil prices and the category of processed agricultural products, especially sugar, where domestic production continued to expand, while the exports of automobiles and electronics still benefited from the gradual recovery in demand from trading partners. Exports of agricultural commodities, such as fruits, declined due to China’s stricter epidemic control measures.
The number of foreign tourists, eliminating seasonal factors, increased slightly from the previous month following the resumption of registration through the Test & Go system from February 1, 2022.
Private consumption indicators, eliminating seasonal factors, declined slightly from the previous month as a result of the worsening domestic epidemic situation coupled with rising energy and food prices, boosting consumer confidence. somehow reduced Government measures are still a positive factor to support household spending.
The decline in private consumption was mainly driven by the durable goods category following passenger car sales, partly due to waiting for EVs with support measures and partly waiting for the motor show in March. The non-durables category also declined as consumer goods and fuel prices rose, as well as the COVID-19 outbreak that reduced travel.
In addition, factors affecting private consumption are higher energy and food prices, as reflected in February headline inflation accelerating to 5.28%, mainly due to 3 issues: 1. Category Energy from both the rising global crude oil price, while the government’s measures to reduce the cost of living in the same period last year made the base low, causing inflation in the energy sector to rise quite a lot. 2. Core inflation in the month Feb. that increased in line with the price of ready-to-eat food 3. Fresh food prices increased in line with the highest prices in February, including the low base of vegetable prices last year.
Private investment indicators, eliminating seasonal factors, declined slightly from the previous month. This decreased mainly from the machinery and equipment, mainly due to the import of capital goods. while the construction side is relatively stable
Industrial production, eliminating seasonal factors, increased slightly from the previous month. especially the petroleum category and food and beverage category In line with the economic recovery trend and in line with the direction of easing outbreak control measures, while some production sectors declined from the previous month, such as rubber and plastics. Electronic components category, automotive category and chemical products category. partly because it is still affected by supply disruption
The value of imported goods that have eliminated seasonal factors increased from the previous month. especially the fuel category that accelerated imports following the order management of operators. Meanwhile, imports of other major categories declined somewhat, including raw materials and intermediate goods, capital goods and consumer goods, in line with domestic spending.
Public expenditure excluding transfers expanded from the same period last year. Fixed expenditures expanded from both expenses for purchasing goods and services. and personnel compensation expenses Meanwhile, the capital expenditure of the central government grew mainly in line with the disbursement of transport agencies.
On the stability front, headline inflation increased in line with energy and fresh food prices, as well as accelerated core inflation from instant food prices following higher raw material costs. labor market adjustment
Some improvements, but overall still fragile For the current account, the deficit decreased from the previous month. This was in line with a larger trade surplus, while the balance of income, services and money transfers continued to deficit. The exchange rate of the baht against the US dollar strengthened after opening up for foreign tourists through the Test & Go system again. in february However, in late Feb. The baht weakened somewhat from the case of Russia’s deployment of troops into Ukraine.
“The factor that causes the baht to fluctuate is because it has a good domestic foundation while the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is still the main factor. However, it is not more volatile than its neighbors and not more volatile than usual.”
Ms. Chayavadee further revealed that The outlook for the Thai economy in March in a recovery direction Even though economic activity has been under pressure from Covid from high energy prices. The Bank of Thailand will monitor the spread of COVID-19. an increase in the cost of goods and the consequences of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict over sanctions
As for the Thai economy in the first quarter of year 65, the overall picture is still recovering. But not dizzy when compared to the 4th quarter of 64 that has recovered well due to the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic. Omicron species But various factors are still in the forecast period. Meanwhile, the Thai economy in the second quarter of 2022 is expected to recover continuously. especially the positive factors from the Songkran festival
However, there are still risks that need to be monitored. Both the spread of COVID-19, the Russian-Ukrainian problems investor confidence which affects energy prices The increase in cost and product prices must be closely monitored for transmission.
