That product that sells like a fly for some reason nowadays, but also concerns about inflation
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Russia seems to have finally crossed the pass in the third wave of the new coronavirus infection. Business continues to flourish.
The Russian economy as a whole is overcoming the corona wreck, and the real GDP (gross domestic product) growth rate in the first quarter of this year was minus 0.7%, recovering to almost the same level as the previous year.
On the other hand, some people have begun to worry about the economic slowdown.
Looking back on the movement of the Russian economy under the corona, I would like to understand the future economic trends.
Economic recovery is a solid step
The Russian economy is steadily recovering.
In the second quarter of 2020, the economy fell sharply due to the lockdown by the new corona (city blockage mainly for banning going out. From the end of March to the beginning of May), but the rate of decline has narrowed over time. The economy is steadily recovering (Fig. 1).
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Russia’s real GDP growth was down 3% for the full year of 2020, which was previously introduced in this magazine as being relatively “shallow” compared to other major and emerging economies (Note).
(“Russian economy with shallow damage even with corona damage” https://jbpress.ismedia.jp/articles/-/64407)
In the first quarter of 2021, it recovered to 0.7% year-on-year decrease.
At a policy meeting in July this year, the Central Bank of Russia acknowledged that the Russian economy had recovered to pre-Corona levels.
In addition to the Russian government and the central bank, international financial institutions such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast Russia’s economic growth prospects this year and next year to be in the high 2% range to around 3%.
It is not necessarily high growth, but it is said that the recovery is solid.
(Note) It was down 3.1% at the time of the breaking news, but has since been revised upward to 3.0%.
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