Text / Liu Xuantong
According to the “Financial News” report, this year, biotech investors are generally in a good mood; on September 8, the weighted index has fallen by almost 20%, but the listed and OTC medical biotechnology index has risen about 12. % against the trend, leading the way All kinds of coquettish stocks. However, on September 6 and 7, because the North Star-KY, the second largest biotech stock market capitalization, hit two limits in a row, dragging down other index stocks and making the market start thinking about danger, did the biotechnology. stocks rallying?
“Financial News” reported that conservatives always have two concerns. First, biotech stocks have been under the banner of policy support. In recent years, the turnover of the industry has been increasing steadily. Look, the net profit was after tax last year about 21.9 billion yuan, accounting for only 0.5% of all listed OTC companies. In the first half of this year, among the top 5 biotech stocks in terms of market value, 3 companies, including Yaohuayao, Polaris, and High-end, were in losses, and their stock prices were high, but their profits had not still How long can investor patience last?
Hidden concerns: Overspending and profitability index
The second point is that from 2016 to 2021, when the Haoding event occurred, the net profit of biotech stocks increased 1.7 times, and the listing line was also larger. Therefore, the biotech index has moved closer to the high point on the when on top of that, it closes weekly. From a price point of view, since the low point of the epidemic in March 2020, Taiwan’s stock market has risen about 57%, the listed biotech medical index has risen 55%, and the OTC biotech index rose 1.57 times, compared to the US NBI biotech index during the same period. It only rose 25.5%. If it’s fair to say that Taiwanese biotech stocks have been neglected for years many, it is also considered a return.
Therefore, according to the analysis of Caixun, in the two days when the North Star fell to the limit, biotech stocks smelled a strong sense of vigilance, adding to the confidence of conservatives.
However, the later facts did not go the way the conservatives expected. Before the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday on September 8, a daily limit of the North Star resolved the concerns of the lower limit of the previous 2 days, which not only made the general biotech stocks excited, but also ensured that the index biotechnology firmly. on the monthly line.
“In the past, biotech stocks were simply dream plays, but now they have dreams and fundamental support. The whole industry continues to get good news. “It’s true that some big players realize that they went up a lot, so they took profit first. However, “From the entry and exit of securities companies of benchmark stocks, such as Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, KGI Taipei, etc., at least 3 days before the Mid-Autumn Festival. During the turbulent days of In the past, the same brokerage came in and out of different biotech companies, meaning the money was still put into the biotech stocks, but only part of the profit was taken to exchange the target.”
The “Financial News” report noted that major investors do not deny that although biotech stocks are less linked to the economic boom, they have indeed risen a lot this year, so for their profitable investors, it is reasonable to recover the cost of capital . . . “However, the atmosphere in electronics stocks is now cold, and shipping stocks are not good either. Biotech stocks still seem to be more interesting, so they will still make some of the money they are do it. “It’s just that they use profits to make up for it. , so the strength may not be as good as before.
From the statement of the big family, two key points can be summarized: First, the worse the electronic stocks, the safer the biotech stocks, because there is nowhere for money to go, especially since the funds have share restrictions basic, electronic. Stocks are not Dare to Buy, forced to buy biotech stocks. Second, capital is the boss. As long as the money is still put into biotech stocks, the rise in the index that conservatives worry about becomes a bogus issue.
Chips: Big money has not been withdrawn
Li Hongji, CEO of Kuanliang International, said in an interview with Caixun that Taiwan’s biotech stocks have exploded several times in the past, and the relevant authorities have strictly guarded them. A group of die-hard supporters, relying on domestic capital alone, has built a solid base and basic liquidity. A person in the biotech industry also said, “The original group of people who played in biotech stocks were still the main attackers, and the forced buying of legal persons who did not touch biotech stocks was the new driver.”
So, back to the original question, are biotech stocks over the top? How to judge long and short direction in the future? There are two biggest keys to follow closely. The first key is to keep an eye on the chips of the big players. The easiest way is to track the movements of the new champions.
For example, Sheng Sheng, a leading stockholder in regenerative medicine, saw a continuous decline in the ratio of large households with more than 400 copies a few months ago, and the stock price was sluggish. The share price has risen, driving the recent share price to take another wave.
“Financial News” reported that, according to statistics, in 2019 before the epidemic, the three big legal persons sold a total of 23.7 billion yuan in high-tech stocks. The two highest targets sold were health care products stocks dominated by the Dajiang Chinese market. and Li Feng. In 2020 and 2021, when the epidemic is hot, the three big corporations will buy and sell small amounts of money every year, but as of September 8 this year, they have bought over 15.1 billion yuan in biotech stocks Over-buying is fully confirm that the global economic climate is deteriorating, and that money is being transferred to biotech stocks for heating.
At the moment, foreign capital is still dominated by these overweight legal person funds. Of course, many of them can be foreign capital from large companies or households; those who bought more than the standard this year are index stocks with relatively high liquidity, such as Lamex, Baoling, Yaohuayao, etc., Zhiqing, University Light, Paul Rui, Polaris, Unity and so on. As for the local investment trust, at the moment, the transaction is still more focused on profitable stocks.
Key: Corporate Aspects and the Rise and Fall of Electronics
The second key is the performance of electronic stocks. A professional investor mentioned one point, “Look at more than 100 biotech stocks, how much capital can be carried? If electronic stocks do not really improve, then in the next 3 to 6 months, it is not ruled out that a person legal funding ahead of rush to market Tech stocks are buying big, and biotech stocks will blow out and then stop.” On the other hand, if the economic outlook suddenly favors a big rebound in electronics stocks, biotech stocks will have to recover for a while.
In fact, biotech stocks have returned to the heat, but judging from the hottest August this year, the transaction value of listed biotech stocks accounted for 35%, while listed biotech stocks accounted for 6% and 4%, accounting for less than 10% of the total transaction value of Taiwan’s stock exchanges, and has yet to reach a crazy point out of control. However, the short-term increase was greater, and individual stocks rose and fell differently. For example, Yaohua Yao, the largest market capitalization, recently adjusted to the price of the upcoming cash capital increase. The revenue was not in August as expected, and the stock price was consolidating.
According to the “Financial News” report, insiders in the securities industry said that biotech stocks, with their buoyant nature and concentrated chips, have attracted election money “they can only do what they cannot say.” Electronics stocks have not rebounded much. , so biotech stocks will continue to maintain their popularity.
However, don’t forget that before the profits of the new drug stocks rule the popularity of biotech stocks, what one-year expectations do the stock prices reflect? Just as Polaris’ new drug will release clinical data in mid-to-late September, it is linked to the company’s first US drug certification. The market consensus is that the pass rate is high, and the stock price rose until to 75%. in August; many parties remain optimistic, but bearish parties It is believed that the stock price has been reflected in advance, and the completely opposite interpretation of the same theme can also reverse the stock price overnight. If it has not ordinary investors the certainty of capital management, they should face it carefully.
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