Source: Nanhua Futures Author: Nanhua Futures
The subject of the research report
thermal coal:The changes in the near end pools are relatively small, with high and low moods, and some stabilization. Shipments are steadily improving, and ports are slightly under pressure. Indonesian coal prices rose slightly, and thermal coal is expected to remain volatile in the short term.
natural gas:The average temperature in Europe in October was 4 degrees Celsius higher than the same period last year, natural gas inventories have been replenished to a high level, and the 20-year WTI position has reappeared in some regions, and the gas general natural price has weakened.
Downstream chemicals:The demand side of various chemicals at the near end is relatively bad, polyester,plasticWhen the downstream order data has been declining, the nine gold and ten silver have ended, and their own demand has weakened seasonally. At the same time, the general perception of impact the epidemic is higher than expected, and we should pay attention to whether the side has a real flexibility policy on the edge.
Summary of the week:
In terms of supply, the coal-based supply side on the mainland has declined significantly, and the support provided by thermal coal has been evident, but coal has weakened slightly recently ( the factory price is delayed).methanolAfter the rebound, the profit has recovered a little, and I will pay attention to the return of Huayu and other devices. In addition, there is still no reliable news about Baofeng production, so it will not be considered for now.
Inventory, this week, the mainland inventory is basically flat, and will be higher in the future After the factory is closed, the pressure on the mainland has been reduced large, and the port has accumulated a small amount of inventory. basis has weakened, and the absolute level is still high.
Demand, Zhongyuan Ethylene and Xingxing stopped due to profit, and the probability of driving in November is small, and Lianhong, Yangmei and other MTO shipments are not high. Changzhou Fude has been successfully restarted. Shenghong is currently 70% loaded (normal feed and decompression this weekend), and the remaining Chengzhi Phase II may have plans to switch from small to large in November. .
In the spot, the basis of the port has weakened, and the volume of transactions has shrunk, and the close on Friday afternoon remained around +220-230. Import and export, Kavi stopped this week, Iran’s shipment in November is expected to be around 56-60, and the import volume in November is expected to be around 100-105, and the increase from month to month will not be special oh big .
View:The contradiction in the industrial chain is not great, and a look of shock is maintained. The macro atmosphere this week is very good, mainly due to some rumors about the epidemic policy and the restoration of the excessive pessimism in the early stage. The general rhythm of the absolute price of methanol is linked to the beta of the market. The contradictions in its own essence have not intensified, and the perceived pressure is much less after parking on the mainland.
After the port stopped destocking, the tension and frenzy of paper cargoes also eased a little, and the basis also decreased to some extent. At present, the main contradiction of the balance sheet lies in the dynamics of Nanjing Chengzhi and Shenghong. If these two sets are achieved, there will be a huge collection of warehouses in the port in December, which is the main reason why the basis 01 so high at the moment.
The future weakening of ports is relatively certain, and the game lies in whether the basis has fully expressed the expectation of future weakening. And this judgment is relatively difficult, and from the balance sheet, if the MTO fails to deliver, it will still be relatively difficult for the port to accumulate warehouses, that is, the judgment of this collection of warehouses cannot withstand any accidents.
Methanol has always been an accident-prone variety, and from this perspective, the transaction value is actually relatively low. What is still relatively certain is the strong support and pressure on the top and bottom edges.
Strategy:The installation option offered in the previous period continued to be maintained.
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