Global growth rate 4.9% → 4.4%… US -1.2%p down
Korea is 3.3% → 3.0% “The first developed country to overcome Corona”
IMF logo. Reuters Yonhap News
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has cut global economic growth by 0.5 percentage points from its forecast three months ago. It is analyzed that it is difficult to follow the growth path initially projected due to the spread of Omicron, high inflation pressure, and slower-than-expected recovery in the US and China.
It also lowered its growth forecast for Korea, which is highly dependent on external sources, by 0.3 percentage points. However, like other major forecasting agencies, it maintained its 3% growth forecast.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its global growth forecast for this year to 4.4%, 0.5 percentage points lower than its original estimate (4.9%) through the World Economic Outlook published on the 25th. The IMF diagnosed the difficulties of the current situation through the report title, “(Coronavirus) cases are increasing, recovery is hampered, and inflation is higher.”
The US growth forecast was lowered by 1.2 percentage points to 4.0%, and China’s growth rate was lowered by 0.8 percentage points to 4.8%, respectively. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted that the US would raise the key interest rate three times each this year and next year, which would have a shock to the global economy as well as the US. China’s growth forecast was lowered on concerns that the contraction in the real estate market could worsen further.
Increasing inflationary pressures also acted as a variable. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast the consumer price index in advanced countries for this year at 3.9%, 1.6 percentage points higher than the previous forecast. Inflation in emerging countries stood at 5.9 percent, up 1.0 percentage point from the October forecast.
IMF-Forecasts-Year-Major-Countries-Growth-Forecasts
As the growth rates of major countries such as the US and China were revised downward, the growth forecast for Korea was also revised to 3.0%, 0.3 percentage points lower than in October last year (3.3%). The government analyzed that the adjustment range compared to major countries was not large as the effects of the recently announced supplementary budget and consumption recovery were reflected. In a video interview with the Korean government on the same day, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is known to have mentioned that “Korea is the first developed country to successfully overcome the shock of the corona virus.”
The IMF’s forecasts are at the same level as those of major economic forecasting agencies, such as the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the Bank of Korea, and the Korea Development Institute (KDI), in November and December of last year. The government proposed 3.1% in December last year, 0.1 percentage point higher than that.
However, as it is difficult to predict the global economic recovery, the government is not slowing down. Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Strategy and Finance Hong Nam-ki said, “The global economy is exposed to downside risks and volatility this year to the extent that the IMF has made revisions right before the announcement, and Korea is no exception. We will make sure that the differentiated performance of the company continues.”
Sejong = Park Se-in reporter sane@hankookilbo.com
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