Yang Jing
Recently, the Central Meteorological Observatory issued a high temperature yellow warning, indicating the arrival of the hot season and the approaching of the peak of electricity and coal consumption throughout the year. The recent improvement of the epidemic situation in many places and the resumption of work and production have driven the increase in energy demand, superimposed the pressure of international energy price input, and the situation of my country’s coal power supply guarantee this summer should not be underestimated. All departments and localities have attached great importance to energy peaking and summer work, deployed in advance, and took multiple measures to ensure supply and stable prices.
1. The shortage of electricity in summer has become the norm, and the pressure to ensure supply and stabilize prices continues to increase
The highest electricity load in summer is rising rapidly year by year.In recent years, with the rapid development of the tertiary industry and the continuous improvement of residents’ living standards, the electricity consumption of air conditioners in summer has increased significantly year by year, driving the rapid increase in the electricity load during the peak summer season. The country’s highest electricity load has rapidly increased from 798 million kilowatts in 2015 to 1.192 billion kilowatts in 2021, a substantial increase of nearly 50%. Since the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan” period, the peak power consumption period in some areas in summer has become the norm, and it has become increasingly difficult to ensure power supply during peak summer. In the context of global warming, extreme weather and climatic events in my country are increasing. Extreme high temperature in summer will not only cause a surge in air-conditioning load, but also reduce the output of thermal power, hydropower and wind turbines.
The sharp rise in international coal prices pushes up domestic coal prices. In 2021, the world’s coal demand will rebound, the market supply and demand will be tight, and coal prices will rise sharply. The average annual price of thermal coal in the European ARA port has risen by 78% compared with the average of 2015-2020. In 2022, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will exacerbate the turmoil in the energy market, and the coal price will continue its upward trend. For a long time, my country’s coal supply has been mainly domestic and supplemented by imports. The annual import volume is about 200 to 300 million tons, accounting for only 5% to 7% of the total consumption. However, due to the high degree of market-oriented pricing of domestic coal, the price of imported coal plays a supporting role in the bottom of the coal price range in the domestic market, and the sharp rise in international coal prices will definitely push up domestic coal prices. From January to May, the average price of my country’s coal imports was as high as 1018 yuan/ton, which was 2.1 times the average of 2015-2020. The domestic coal price is facing great challenges.
2. The policy combination has exerted force, and the guarantee level of coal and electricity consumption has been significantly improved
Since the beginning of this year, in the face of the complicated domestic and international energy market situation, the relevant departments have attached great importance to the work of ensuring energy supply and stabilizing prices, strengthened overall coordination, supervised the increase of production and supply, and strengthened the balance of dispatching, so as to achieve an overall stable and orderly energy supply across the country.
Coal supply is stable at record highs.Coal is the main body of energy consumption in my country. Since November 2021, the release of domestic coal production capacity has been accelerated, superimposed on the implementation of the policy of adding 300 million tons of coal production capacity. Even taking into account the slight decline in imported coal, the scale of domestic coal supply in the first half of the year was the highest in the past decade (Figure 1). In the second quarter, the maintenance of major railways was completed and the transport capacity was restored. The Daqin Line transported a total of 67.4 million tons of coal from April to May, which drove the stock level of the Bohai Rim ports to rise steadily, and the coal stock of Qinhuangdao Port remained at about 5 million tons. According to the China Electric Coal Purchasing Price Index (CECI) weekly report, the overall inventory of power plants in early June increased by 24.08 million tons year-on-year, and the available days of inventory were 24.9 days, which continued to remain at the highest level in the same period in the past two years. In addition, the increase in coal prices has declined.
The diversified supply capacity of electricity continued to increase. On the one hand, the scale of power installed capacity has been increasing in recent years.At present, the country’s total installed capacity of power generation has reached 2.42 billion kilowatts, ranking first in the world. Among them, the installed capacity of coal power is 1.11 billion kilowatts, accounting for a relatively high level of about 46%, which is conducive to playing the role of “ballast stone”. Renewable energy power generation has achieved leapfrog development, and the installed capacity has exceeded 1 billion kilowatts. Among them, the installed capacity of hydropower, wind power, photovoltaic power generation and biomass power generation has ranked first in the world for 17 consecutive years, 12 years, 7 years and 4 years respectively.On the other hand, since the beginning of this year, the main power generation situation has been relatively good.. Clean energy power generation achieved double-digit growth in May, which is conducive to ensuring power supply. Affected by the high precipitation in the south in the second quarter and the historically high flow rate of the Three Gorges Reservoir, hydropower generation has increased significantly. In May, hydropower generation increased by 26.7% year-on-year, accounting for 19% of the national power generation. It is expected that the hydropower generation situation will continue to be good this summer, which is conducive to ensuring stable power supply during the peak summer season. In May, the proportion of new energy power generation represented by wind power and solar power generation steadily increased to nearly 12%, which is in potential. From January to May, wind power generation increased by 9.5% year-on-year. In addition, nuclear power generation increased by 4.5% year-on-year.
Source: China Development NetworkReturn to Sohu, see more
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