Original title: The Eurozone economy rebounded sharply in the third quarter, but the new blockade threatens economic recovery
The rebound in the euro zone economy in the third quarter was much stronger than expected. But with the virus’s resurgence in recent weeks, the optimism is short-lived. With more stringent epidemic restrictions, the outlook for the fourth quarter looks grim, which has lost a lot of the “good feeling” of the previous quarter. If the restrictions are extended, economic confidence may be more difficult to restore.
Data released by the Eurozone Statistics Office on Friday showed that the Eurozone in the third quarterGDP(GDP) An increase of 12.7% from the previous quarter, far better than market expectations of 9.4%.
After shrinking by 11.8% in the second quarter, economic growth rebounded sharply this quarter. But as governments in the euro zone tighten restrictions again, this momentum may be suppressed.
Pantheon MacroAnalystClaus Vistesen said in a report, “With the end of the blockade, the euro zone economy rebounded sharply in the third quarter, but there is still some distance from a full recovery, and there may be a setback in the fourth quarter.”
Preliminary data released by the French Statistical Office show that in the third quarter, French GDP grew by 18.2%. French GDP shrank by 3.7% in the second quarter.
Andrew Kenningham, chief European economist at Capital Economics, said in a report: “France’s third-quarter GDP growth is not consoling for French policymakers and families. They are currently fighting the second national lockdown. struggle.”
French Minister of Economy Le Maire said in an interview with radio station France Inter on Friday that the euro zone is the second largestBig economyThe French economy is expected to shrink by 11% this year. The French government had previously expected a 10% contraction.
French President Macron announced on Wednesday strict restrictions aimed at curbing the spread of the epidemic. Beginning Friday, a nationwide lockdown that lasts for at least one month will require people to stay at home, while restaurants, bars and non-essential shops will be closed.
Germany’s GDP in the third quarter increased by 8.2% from the previous quarter, mainly due to the increase in household consumption,ExportSteady growth andmanufacturingActive activities.
Italian UnionCreditbankChief German economist Andreas Rees said: “It is very likely that economic activity will contract slightly in the fourth quarter.”
In Thursday’s policy decision, the European Central Bank issued a strong signal that it may expand in December.currencyThe scale of the stimulus is aimed at cushioning the economic impact of a series of new blockade measures taken to curb the resurgence of the new crown epidemic.
The European Central Bank warned in a statement that the Eurozone economy faces clear risks and stated that it will implement its policy on December 10.meeting“Re-adjust tools as appropriate to respond to the developing situation.”
One day after Europe’s top two economies, Germany and France, announced the strictest epidemic restrictions since this spring, European Central Bank President Lagarde said that the central bank intends to further expand its large-scale monetary stimulus plan in December.
Lagarde warned that the euro zone economy will slow down significantly in the coming months due to the increase in infection cases leading to a blockade of many countries across the European continent. The Eurozone economy has just recovered from its worst collapse since World War II.
The European Central Bank will announce this plan at the bank’s December policy meeting, which may include the purchase of billions of dollarsBond, And interest rate cuts andbankProvide lower cost loans.
European Central BankbankSupervisionCommitteeCommissioner Joshnik said that the euro zone is facing the risk of a second recession because new economic restrictions are being implemented to contain the coronavirus pandemic.
“ourBaselineScenario predictions cannot be taken for granted. The possibility of a double-dip recession cannot be ruled out. As the Eurozone is implementing new restrictive measures to curb the current counterattack against the new crown epidemic, this will once again increase households,enterpriseAnd the uncertainty of the bank,” she said.
Volkswagen warned on Thursday that the epidemic has hit hardthe companyprofit, This year’s profits will “severely decline.”In terms of sales volume, Volkswagen is the world’s largest carmanufacturer. At present, governments of various countries have adopted a new round of blockade measures in response to the increasing number of new crown cases, which will once again threaten the global economy.
GermanybusinessJoerg Kraemer, chief economist of the bank in Frankfurt, said: “The economy is not a motor. It is impossible to switch on and off without causing significant damage.” “Affected by the first round of blockade, many companies are still very weak. “
So far, EuropeanunemploymentCompared with the United States, the rate is still at a low level, because European governments provide wage subsidies to millions of workers to keep them safe from the epidemic at home.Italy and other weaker Eurozone countriesborrowAlthough the cost of payment has risen recently, it is still far below the peak level in spring.
Some economists say that during the latest round of lockdown, the performance of large European manufacturing industries may be stronger, because companies will learn the safety lessons learned in the first wave of the epidemic, and the economic recovery in China and the United States has also led to increased demand. .
Kraemer said: “U.S. experience shows that the second wave of COVID-19 does not necessarily mean that the economy has experienced a second serious recession.”
Nonetheless, ECB officials have been preparing for a wave of corporate bankruptcies and layoffs that will be delayed later this year.An ECB survey this week warned of a possible rise in non-performing loansAnd creditConditions tightened. The Eurozone inflation rate fell to minus 0.3% in September, well below its target of just under 2%.
On Thursday night local time, European Commission President Von der Lein said in Brussels that unless the governments of the EU member states take immediate action, the EU’s medical system will be at risk of being crushed by the new crown virus. On the same day, EU leaders convened a special summit by video to discuss strategies to deal with the new crown epidemic. Von der Lein made the above statement at a press conference held after the meeting.
Von der Lein said that the European Commission has allocated 220 million euros to fund the cross-border transfer of new crown patients within the EU, thereby reducing the medical pressure on the member states most affected by the epidemic. “Leaders of EU member states agreed that virus testing and case tracking are two important aspects of current epidemic prevention and control.core tasksAt the same time, countries have also promised to further strengthen data sharing, especially timely sharing of accurate epidemic data with the European Centers for Disease Control and Prevention,” Von Delane said.
(Article source: UniversalForeign exchangenetwork)
(Editor in charge: DF537)
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