In the past, coal miners in western countries would raise a canary in a coal mine. Because the gas is poisonous, but colorless and tasteless, the gas leaked, and the miners died unknowingly. If the miner sees the canary falling down in silence, he knows that there is a gas leak and immediately evacuated. Nowadays, the “canary” of global energy supply has fallen like a domino. There are several visions in it.
First, there are long queues at gas stations in the UK, and oil prices have soared. Almost half of the gas stations in the UK have no gasoline supply. The main cause of this gasoline shortage in the UK is Brexit. Before Brexit, the low-level jobs of oil truck drivers were mainly performed by laborers from poorer countries in the EU. However, after Brexit, the UK restricted the entry of labor from other countries, but the British did not like to do these dirty jobs. There was a large shortage of truck drivers in the UK, and no one transported gasoline, which led to a “oil shortage.”
Second, China’s power cuts have been cut off. After September of this year, many places in China issued notices of power rationing mainly aimed at enterprises, and some enterprises had to stagger the peak rotation power supply production, or even suspend production. Liaoning, Jilin, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong and other places have successively issued notices of curtailment. The phenomenon of “open two stop five” or even “open one stop six” appears in severely existing areas. Since thermal power generation accounts for 70% of the overall energy supply in the Mainland, the impact is not light. On the surface, the power cuts in the Mainland are caused by insufficient coal supply or insufficient power supply equipment. In fact, there are three real reasons.
1. Affected by the new crown epidemic, many Southeast Asian countries, such as Vietnam, have suspended production, causing a large number of energy-intensive industries to return to China, leading to a blowout in energy demand. Since the beginning of this year, the monthly electricity consumption in the operation area of the State Grid has increased rapidly, and the social electricity consumption in the first six months of this year has increased by 15.8% compared with the same period last year.
2. In order to achieve the “carbon neutrality target”, China has set various indicators such as energy efficiency ratio. In order to meet the standards, local governments have also set strict limits on high-emission industries. Thermal power generation companies must act according to the indicators and cut off the power when they approach the indicators.
3. The price of coal is skyrocketing, but the price of electricity is controlled by the state, and the rate of increase is limited, which hurts power companies. Recently, the prices of the “three coal brothers” such as thermal coal, coking coal and coke have hit new highs. According to the person in charge of a power generation agency in Guangdong, thermal power generation requires a loss of 8 cents for every kilowatt-hour of electricity. Power companies have emission reduction targets, and power generation will cause losses, so they simply stop. Therefore, the main reason for domestic electricity curtailment is not the lack of coal, but because of emission reduction policies and corporate profit considerations.
The third anomaly is that a large number of natural gas traders are recruited. Recently, many large commodity traders like Glencore have suffered losses in the European natural gas market. They bought and sold natural gas futures in the Dutch TTF futures market, or engaged in arbitrage activities between European natural gas and American natural gas. When the price difference between them reaches one extreme or the other extreme, buy one type and sell another type, in the hope of “returning value”, and you can make a profit.
European natural gas prices soared in the second quarter, and the widening gap between European natural gas and American natural gas has attracted many traders to sell European natural gas and buy American natural gas at the same time. However, natural gas prices in Europe and the United Kingdom continued to soar out of control. In September, Dutch natural gas futures soared by 62.6%. The weather price in the United Kingdom rose even more sharply. In September, the price rose by nearly 90%. Short position.
After reading the three visions of the UK’s oil shortage, China’s power cuts, and the sharp rise in European natural gas prices, it appears that the UK’s oil shortage is caused by a lack of relevant labor and has the smallest relationship with energy supply. China’s electricity curtailment is directly related to the explosion of coal prices, while the explosion of European natural gas dealers is related to the surge in European gas prices.
China’s power curtailment problem is not impossible to solve. Recently, Hao Peng, Secretary of the Party Committee of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, was asked to go to the State Grid Corporation of China to arrange the deployment work. In fact, the reason is very simple. Electricity rationing will affect people’s livelihood, so Grandpa doesn’t want to arouse public grievances. The power plant is not incapable of generating electricity, but because it is afraid of losing money, it restricts its power generation. Grandpa asked the power plant to talk about politics, that is, to put the overall situation first, and to generate electricity even if it loses money.
With the promotion of the central government, it is believed that the power curtailment problem in the Mainland can be alleviated to a certain extent. But winter is approaching, energy demand is bound to rise again, and a storm may be approaching.
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