The global manufacturing PMI in February was 54.9%, a slight increase from the previous month, and the global economy continued its recovery trend_epidemic_Europe_Inflation

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Original title: The global manufacturing PMI in February was 54.9%, a slight increase from the previous month, and the global economy continued its recovery trend

According to the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the global manufacturing PMI in February 2022 was 54.9%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and remained above 54% for two consecutive months. In terms of sub-regions, the manufacturing PMI of the Americas and Africa increased from the previous month, and the manufacturing PMI of Asia and Europe decreased from the previous month.

From the index changes, the global economy continued to recover. The average global manufacturing PMI in January-February 2022 was 54.8%, slightly lower than the same period last year by 0.2 percentage points, indicating that the strength of economic recovery still needs to be improved. The spread of the epidemic still disrupts the global economic recovery. In countries and regions with severe epidemics, the manufacturing industry fluctuates more obviously. Under the disturbance of the epidemic, the stability of the global supply chain needs to be consolidated. The shortage of raw materials and labor supply continues to push up the operating costs of enterprises, and the global inflationary pressure remains high. The year-on-year growth rate of CPI in major countries in Europe and the United States has increased significantly. In addition, the continuation of the epidemic has further exacerbated the differentiation of the recovery of different economies, and the imbalance of global economic development will be difficult to change in the short term. Governments are also struggling to choose between supporting economic recovery and resisting inflationary pressures. Targeted and precise measures may help countries maintain a stable economic recovery.

Eliminating the impact of the epidemic as soon as possible is still the foundation of the sustained and stable recovery of the global economy. Carrying out economic and trade cooperation through innovation and forming synergy for development is also an important direction for countries to achieve economic recovery. Recently, the UK and Singapore signed an innovative digital trade agreement, which means that countries around the world are working hard to open up new opportunities for economic stability and recovery through innovation in economic and trade cooperation.

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African manufacturing recovery accelerates, PMI rises

In February 2022, the African manufacturing PMI rose by 2.7 percentage points from the previous month to 52.8%, ending a two-month month-on-month decline, indicating that the recovery of African manufacturing has accelerated from the previous month. From the perspective of major countries, Nigeria’s manufacturing industry has recovered significantly from the previous month, which has better driven the overall recovery of African manufacturing.

The continuous advancement of the African Free Trade Area has brought a positive impact on the economic recovery of African countries. AU member states have reached consensus on tariffs on more than 80% of goods of African origin and have launched a dispute settlement mechanism. The newly launched pan-African payment settlement system removes the barriers of payment in different currencies among African countries. African countries also attach great importance to the integration of new technologies and stimulate more economic vitality through the application of digital currency. For example, Nigeria has officially launched the central bank digital currency. Continuing to maintain political stability and strengthen the prevention and control of the epidemic is an important guarantee for the stable recovery of the African economy.

Asian manufacturing growth slows, PMI down slightly

In February 2022, the Asian manufacturing PMI fell slightly by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month to 51.6%, indicating that the growth rate of Asian manufacturing has slowed down from the previous month. Affected by the epidemic, the growth rate of manufacturing in Japan, Indonesia and Hong Kong has slowed down significantly from the previous month, dragging down the overall growth rate of Asian manufacturing. The fluctuations of the manufacturing PMI of other major countries were relatively stable. China’s manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and remained above 50% for four consecutive months, indicating that China’s economy remained stable. Despite the impact of the epidemic, Asian economic growth has remained relatively resilient. Morgan Stanley’s chief economist expects Asia to outpace the Americas and Europe in gross domestic product (GDP) growth over the next two years. The advancement of RCEP is expected to improve the trade environment in Asia, reduce trade costs, and improve the convenience of trade in Asia. However, it should also be noted that the looser monetary policy in the Asian region is being tested by global inflationary pressures.

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European manufacturing growth slows, PMI falls

In February 2022, the European manufacturing PMI was 56.9%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the growth rate of European manufacturing has slowed down from the previous month. From the perspective of major countries, affected by the epidemic, the growth rate of German manufacturing has slowed down, which has dragged down the growth of European manufacturing to a certain extent. The manufacturing PMIs of countries such as the United Kingdom, France and Spain increased to varying degrees from the previous month. The continuous spread of the epidemic in Europe has not yet eased significantly, with new confirmed cases rising, and many European countries are repeatedly between the epidemic blockade and the reopening. Inflationary pressures have also increased in Europe. Preliminary statistics from Eurostat show that, affected by the sharp rise in energy prices, the inflation rate in the euro zone in February 2022 will reach an annual rate of 5.8%, higher than market expectations and hitting a record high for several consecutive months. Although Europe is facing greater inflationary pressure, the European Central Bank has maintained a cautious attitude in monetary policy considering that the European economic recovery is still under pressure. The Bundesbank recently said that the latest round of the new crown pneumonia epidemic may push the German economy into a technical recession in the first quarter of 2022.

America’s manufacturing growth rebounded, PMI rose

In February 2022, the manufacturing PMI in the Americas rose by 1 percentage point from the previous month to 57.4%, ending a two-month month-on-month decline. Data from major countries showed that the manufacturing PMIs of the United States, Canada, Brazil, and Mexico all rose to varying degrees from the previous month.

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Data showed that the growth rate of manufacturing in the Americas ended a slowdown and accelerated from the previous month. Manufacturing growth in major countries accelerated to varying degrees. Among them, the US manufacturing PMI increased by 1 percentage point from the previous month to 58.6%, driving the increase in the American manufacturing PMI. The ISM report shows that the growth rate of U.S. manufacturing production and demand accelerated from the previous month, but the shortage of raw materials and labor continued to plague business operations, resulting in a significant increase in the backlog of orders. The U.S. manufacturing backlog index rose sharply to over 60% from the previous month, an increase of more than 8 percentage points. The above problems not only lead to the tension of the US supply chain, but also bring about greater inflationary pressure. Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on February 10 showed that the CPI in January 2022 increased by 7.5% year-on-year, hitting a new high since February 1982. In order to ease inflationary pressures, the Fed’s plan to raise interest rates has already started, and the progress and intensity of interest rate hikes will be adjusted at any time according to the level of inflation.

Editor: Wan Yuhang

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