The market versus the Fed… The future outlook for Wall Street is Cho Jae-gil’s Global Market Now

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▶Cho Jae-gil New York Reporter
40 minutes have passed since the New York Stock Exchange closed.
FOMC is not one day now, but now it’s two days away by New York standards, and I’m excited.
Today, the decline was universal, and Europe was the first to decline.
Based on the Eurostock 50 index, it was slightly behind on Monday by 0.44%, but

Germany is the largest economy in Europe. Q4 The GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter of last year came out.
However, I thought it would record 0% in the market, but it turned out to be minus 0.2%.
Germany’s growth rate fell behind market expectations.

Then, now, the first quarter is important again.
The forecasts raise the possibility of negative growth in the first quarter of this year as well.
Then, if it is negative for two quarters in a row, technically, it will be sluggish.

The New York Stock Exchange’s S&P 500 Index was pushed 1.3% today.
It crossed the 4000 mark, but was pushed back a lot today.
The Nasdaq would have fallen more and was pushed back by 1.96%.
When interest rates rise, growth stocks are included.
Debt-burdened Nasdaq stocks fall more.
The Dow fell 0.77%.
The volatility index, also known as the fear index, rose today because stocks fell.
I crossed 20 again in a matter of days. 20.01 Recorded.

Today, the 10-year Treasury bond recorded an annual rate of 3.55% and rose 3bp.
In general, there was an atmosphere to sell some bonds now.
So when prices fall, interest rates rise. So it went up overall.
The two-year yield hit 4.25%.
The two-year yield rose slightly more, but this reflects the change in monetary policy well.
So it’s up 6bp. Two days before the FOMC
In any case, the view that the base rate will be raised by 25bp is reflected here.
Overall, hawkish statements about interest rates will strengthen the dollar.

Dollar Index Today, the value of the dollar against its six equivalent currencies was slightly stronger today. 102.24
When the dollar strengthens, oil prices fall and precious metals fall as well. It went down overall.
West Texas crude fell $77.9 to $1.78 a barrel during the day.
Brent oil in Europe reached a record $84.9 a barrel. $1.76 is down a lot.
Let’s see the gold price. To match the strengthening dollar, gold weakened by $1938 per troy ounce.

Bitcoin’s $22,700 almost went close to $24,000.
This is currently back 4% compared to 24 hours ago.
Also, ahead of the FOMC, we clear some risky assets.
It can be interpreted as a sale realizing a profit.
Ethereum is down more than 5% compared to 24 hours ago
I’m recording like this at $1560, but I actually ran a lot over the weekend.

Let’s look at the monthly breakdown. Sam Stovall, CFRA Chief Strategist. It’s technology.
Let’s look at technical analysis.
After the Second World War, if the stock price rises in January,
There is an 85% chance of progress over the course of a year. A bit positive this year. The average rate of increase is 11.5%.
However, if you look at it, after WWII, based on the S&P 500 index
The average increase is close to 10%. On average, it continued to rise like that.

Last year, the S&P 500 fell 19.4%.
Like last year, when the previous year was negative like this
The average rate of increase rises to 14%.

Then we talked about the Santa Rally.
Speaking of the Santa Rally, 5 business days at the end of last year and 2 business days at the start of this year
This is the period when Santa comes.
I can’t tell until this year’s rally, but it was an advantage during the Santa Claus Rally.
It then rose during the first 5 business days of the year,
Then it rises in January, and when these three conditions are completed,
Historically, the probability of an increase in the stock market this year is 100%.
In any case, compared to the beginning of this year, the index will be higher at the end of the year.
When I looked at the average rate of increase, it said it would record a fairly high rate of increase at 29%.
I did a technical analysis.

Max Katner, HSBC Strategist.
He also had a good conversation.
Optimism that a recession will only come in the second half of the year is increasing.
First, it doesn’t come in the first half. That is why the stock price rose.

The stock market during the first half of the year was neither hot nor cold, as stock price and earnings showed good performance.
There is the potential of Elen Goldfelen which is in very good condition.
Prices are falling, deflation, prices are slowing right now.
Additionally, a short-term recovery in consumer sentiment will be a catalyst to boost the stock market.

After that, the FOMC is the day after tomorrow after the Fed base rate decision
If Chairman Powell speaks negatively to the market, he may be pushed back.
At that time, I advised you to increase your stock exposure.

Savita Subramanian is a strategist at Bank of America (BofA).
I said some bad things.
The S&P 500 Index has yet to bottom, and there is a possibility that it will be pushed to the 3000 line.
That is 1000 points lower than now.

Also, the market behaves as if inflation has already fallen to 3%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is currently at 6.5%.
That is very high. I mean, we couldn’t even come close.

This is why the Fed will be more aggressive in dealing with inflation.
It seems that about half of Wall Street thinks this way.

Mike Wilson also keeps saying a lot of pessimistic things.
He is the Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of Morgan Stanley.

Considering the margins of companies, it means that the performance is worse than expected now.
It may be fine if you look at sales or things like that, but
If you look at the margin rate, it’s always worse than expected.

Then don’t fight the Fed There’s a Wall Street peak like this.
Why did you forget this and why does the stock price continue to rise?
The recent jump in stock price is originally due to new cash inflows in January, so it takes effect in January,
As I think it was not a short sale, it raises the stock price further with the short covering effect.

Depending on the wrong market prices, there is a possibility of a bear market in the future.
I saw it this way.

Marco Kolanovic. He was the one with the most swear words last year.
The stock price keeps going down, but I’m yelling Buy the Dip (Buy the Dip)
He is a recent convert this year.
I kept saying there would be a very bear market.

As we expect a bear market this year, the first quarter will be a turning point for the market, and it is difficult to sustain the progress.
I saw it this way. Corporate profits will shrink as companies lose their pricing power.
Decline in profits is likely to gradually accelerate during 2Q and 3Q.
The threat of recession has not gone away, it has been pushed back.

Stagnation will come. The capping interest rate is already 4.5% per annum, but if you raise it to 5%
Restricted rates will be more certain.
The threat of recession in the second half is growing. I explained it like this.

From tonight in Korean time, there is a lot of performance coming out.
I think I need to look at this: McDonald’s, General Motors, Exxon Mobil, AMD Snap, etc.
Publication of quarterly results.
A consumer confidence index is also available.

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Together= Deputy Director Seong-geun Cho
Progress= Cho Jae-gil, Global Market Manager
filming, editing=Kim Chae-eun PD
planning, production= Korea Economic Daily