The National Bank of Thailand won the weakest baht in 5 years, urging the state to reduce people’s living costs
on May 3 Mr. Chaichan Charoensuk, Chairman of the Council of Shippers of Thailand (NSTDA) Referring to Thailand’s international trade in March 2022, the NESDB forecasts Thai exports in the quarter. 2/2565 (April-June) grew 3.5-5% and maintained the full-year forecast by 5%, positive factors from the weak baht. The segment will expand to 10% as the Ministry of Finance wants or does not have to monitor the situation again. One important variable is the baht.
Currently, the NRA uses the baht level at 33.5 – 34.5 baht per US dollar. It is hoped that the government and the Bank of Thailand (BOT) will help keep the baht stable in depreciation like this for a while, which will be good for the export sector. Because the factors that weaken the baht come from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will adjust the policy rate again. It is expected to increase by 0.5%, thus driving the weakening of the global currency. Especially the yen, which has weakened a lot. The percentage depreciation of the baht is less than the yen. Because the Japanese government has not adjusted interest rates from the economy that has not recovered.
NESDB expects exports this year to be at 5%, likely to be at an achievable level and achieve the target. But if an increase of 10% according to the Ministry of Finance policy The possibility depends on many factors such as the value of the baht. need to follow up for another period,” said Mr. Chaichan. Exports also have risk factors that are 6 major obstacles, consisting of 1. The war situation between Ukraine and Russia. 2. Energy prices have stabilized at a high level. 3. Freight has decreased slightly, but remained stable at a high level. 4. Labor in the manufacturing sector continues to have a shortage of In addition, there is a tendency for higher employment costs. 5. The problem of raw material shortage and fluctuating prices and 6. The situation of the epidemic of the Covid-19 virus
- urge the state to reduce the cost of living for people
Mr. Chaichan said that in the case of an increase in the minimum wage Ask the government to consider it mainly based on inflation factors. as well as manage inflation not to be higher than 5% so that entrepreneurs do not bear too high a burden At the same time, there must be no shortage of labor. Because the industrial sector requires a lot of labor and look at the cost that must be appropriate and does not have a severe effect on exporters or manufacturers In addition, the government must consider controlling or reducing the cost of living in the people’s sector, such as the cost of traveling by public transport, water, electricity and energy costs. to help reduce the burden of daily expenses of the people including reducing the production cost of operators including pushing for market expansion Because the new market requires more expenses. I want the government to help support the search for new markets. Accelerate trade into the Arcep market or regional economic cooperation as much as possible in order to take advantage of the agreement.
Mr. Chaichai said that for energy prices that have continued to rise TNSC wants the government to return to freeze the price of diesel not more than 30 baht per liter, wants the Fuel Fund, together with the major oil producers in Thailand to freeze the price. or may extend the period of diesel price fixation at 30 baht per liter until the end of this year Because prices higher than 30 baht per liter affect the cost of industrial energy production. and increased logistics costs
- The baht weakened to its lowest point in five years.
Ms. Rung Sanguanruang, Director of Global Markets Business Promotion Department Bank of Ayudhya Public Company Limited said that the direction of the baht this week is likely to move in a frame of 34.15-34.65 baht per dollar Touched the weakest level in 5 years, compared to last week, the baht closed at 34.27 baht per dollar. The dollar strengthened against all major currencies last week on fears over the global economic outlook and the Fed’s accelerating interest rate cuts and balance sheet cuts, prompting investors to take risks.
Mr. Poon Panichpiboon, money market strategist, Krungthai GLOBAL MARKETS, Krung Thai Bank Said that the baht opened the morning of May 3 at 34.46 baht per dollar. Looking at the frame this week, 34.10-34.60 baht per dollar. The baht trend is still volatile on the weak side and there is a chance to test the resistance at 34.50 baht per dollar. Advise traders to use currency hedging tools.
