Although there were only 3 trading days last week, the hotspot rotation frequency in the A-share market is still high, and trading activity remains unabated: as of September 24, the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets has exceeded 10,000 for 46 consecutive trading days 100 million yuan. The National Day holiday is approaching, and many institutions believe that the active funds on the market before the holiday may tend to wait and see, structural disturbance factors still exist, but there is no systemic risk in the market. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter market, in the context of rebalancing the style, the market value and heavyweight stocks may drive the emergence of new investment opportunities.
Increased volatility in cyclical stocks
Last week, the previous strong upstream cycle sector was hit, and the chemical, non-ferrous, steel, mining and other industries all called back. On the news, the National Development and Reform Commission recently issued the “Plan for Improving the Dual Control System for Energy Consumption Intensity and Total Volume”, which clarified the overall arrangement, working principles and tasks of the dual control system for energy consumption: by 2025, energy consumption intensity and The system of dual total control (hereinafter referred to as “dual control of energy consumption”) is more complete, the allocation of energy resources is more reasonable, and the utilization efficiency is greatly improved.
CITIC SecuritiesThe macro research team said that dual energy consumption control is the focus of the current market. Industrial production in the first half of this year was relatively strong, resulting in energy consumption that may not have reached the target set at the beginning of the year. However, industrial production naturally lags behind, and the pressure of production restriction may follow. The weakening.
Specifically, industrial production in the first half of this year can be said to be the strongest since 2013, with electricity consumption increasing by 16.2% year-on-year, crude steel by 11.8%, and cement by 14.1%.CITIC SecuritiesIt is believed that with the subsequent recovery of overseas supply, the global supply and demand gap is expected to narrow, which means that the high growth in energy consumption caused by high industrial growth this year is unsustainable. Even if there is no major adjustment to the energy consumption dual control target, after the industry returns to normal growth, the energy consumption indicators will be more generous, and the production and power restrictions will naturally decrease.
The market style in the fourth quarter will be more balanced
Haitong SecuritiesChief StrategyAnalystXun Yugen reviewed the market since the beginning of this year and believes that the major financial and infrastructure-related manufacturing industries are expected to benefit in the future, and the market style will be more balanced.
Xun Yugen said that in the first nine months of this year, there were two obvious changes in the A-share market. Before the Spring Festival, the market maintained the inertia of last year’s “leading market”. After the Spring Festival and the end of March, the market adjusted and the main line of the market changed. From the end of March to July, the new energy vehicle sector had the highest growth rate; the market adjusted again in July, and the resource stocks have risen since the end of July. Leading, these are the first “two winds” of this year.
Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, the policy of stabilizing growth is expected to further increase, and “the wind is blowing towards the underestimated large financial and infrastructure-related manufacturing industries.” The major financial and infrastructure-related manufacturing industries have benefited from the above policies. As the debt problems of individual real estate companies have eased, the major financial industry is expected to usher in restoration. The force of the stabilizing growth policy will directly drive the growth of investment in new and old infrastructure, thereby expanding the demand for related manufacturing industries. The large financial and infrastructure-related manufacturing industries have relatively low price-to-price ratios due to their low valuations and relatively small initial gains.
Guotai JunanSecurities strategist Chen Xianshun believes that recent market fluctuations are mainly structural disturbances rather than systemic risks. Investors are recommended to hold stocks for the holidays and “wait for the market to rise in October”. In terms of market style, under the background of rebalancing the style, the value and weight of the market will drive new investment opportunities. The growth of the mid-market with profitability is the core main line, but the gap between growth and value, and the gap between the market and the small and medium-sized markets will be relative to this year. Convergence in the second and third quarters.
The big consumer sector has a higher winning rate before the holiday
This week, A shares will usher in the last week of trading before the National Day.
According to statistics from the strategy team of Yuekai Securities, from historical backtesting, the past 10 yearsShenzhen Component IndexwithGrowth Enterprise Market IndexThe probability of rising in the week before National Day is 60%,Shanghai IndexThe probability of a rise is 40%.
Specific to the industry, in the past 10 years, the sectors with a higher probability of rising in the week before the National Day include automobiles, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, mining, electronics,food and drink, Medical biology, leisure services, national defense and military industry, the probability of increase is more than 60%. in,food and drinkIn the past 10 years, the average growth rate of the automobile sector in the week before the National Day was 0.97% and 0.92%. Yuekai Securities believes that this is mainly because the National Day holiday is the traditional peak consumption season, which directly benefits the big consumer sector.
Therefore, Yuekai Securities recommends that investors pay attention to three main lines: one is the investment opportunities in the pre-happy section of the third quarterly report; the second is the investment opportunities in the large consumer sector with a higher winning rate before the holiday; and the third is the leading quality in wealth management transformation.BrokerageStock investment opportunities.
(Source: Shanghai Securities News)