One would have to wonder if, given the sobriety that Claudia Sheinbaum has resorted to, some investors and big businessmen will think twice before lining up in favor of a candidate who so casually resorts to witticisms and vulgarities to please the audience. Photo: Adolfo Vladimir, Cuartoscuro
In recent days, within the circles close to the Obrador movement and on social networks related to this current, the possibility that the recent questioning of Xóchitl Gálvez has precipitated his fall has been insistently mentioned. That is, an alleged withdrawal of his candidacy by the Frente Amplio after judging that he has lost competitiveness in the presidential race. But I don’t think there are those types of considerations among the opposition leaders; It seems to me that this is more of a wish on the part of the left than a real possibility, at least for the moment. And it reminds us, although in the opposite direction, of the cheerful accounts that used to be made in the media adverse to the 4T every time a scandal arose around the figure of López Obrador or one of those close to him. “Now Mexicans are going to be disillusioned after this video” (photo of a house, slip or whatever). Obviously, López Obrador’s approval did not plummet, nor is Xóchitl going to collapse overnight. The consequences of bad news are always magnified by the opposing side.
It certainly hasn’t been a good run for the opposition candidate. The dissemination of some irregularities during the acquisition and construction of her house or the display of a series of plagiarized paragraphs in her university thesis do not help her, of course. And her damage control strategy will satisfy some, but she will worry others. She did well to recognize her “bullshit” in regards to her thesis and her willingness to write another one if the authorities so judge. A good reaction considering that politicians usually take refuge in denial, even when caught in the act. But she couldn’t help but blurt out one of those phrases that must make many people’s hair stand on end in the traditional sectors: “… tomorrow they are going to say that I am not a woman, that I have balls, and boy do they have a lot.”
One would have to wonder if, given the sobriety to which Claudia Sheinbaum has resorted, some investors and large businessmen will think twice before lining up in favor of a candidate who so casually resorts to witticisms and vulgarities to please the audience.
And ultimately, more than the scandals that Xóchitl may face along the way, it is the latter that can truly affect his chances. With a certain logic, the opposition looked for a figure who could challenge the popular vote to the Morena candidates, understanding that the rest of their options had an image that was too fifi for the current times in electoral matters. It is no coincidence that the other finalist was Beatriz Paredes, with verb and huipil conducive to the public square and the only survivor with some identification with the welfare-oriented PRI. In the PAN what they found was Xóchitl, whose humble origins favored the construction of a narrative against Morenista, a public figure with populist attributes.
But what works for one thing hinders another. The character willing to go up to the podium dressed as a dinosaur and interrupt an official speaker in the midst of legislative tasks, breaks the scheme of the presidential image that many Mexicans have, even some who do not agree with the Obadorismo. The Monterrey businessmen already experienced a version of this with Jaime Rodríguez, “El Bronco”, a clear and popular figure but mediocre as a ruler.
The underlying issue is, precisely, how much depth Xóchitl Gálvez has; the presidential “substance” that he may or may not possess. That is the real challenge that the war room of his campaign will have. It should be remembered that the internal primary between her and Beatriz Paredes had to be suspended due to the leadership’s fear that the PRI member would shorten the lead that the PAN member had. During the debates and over the course of days, Paredes showed the experience and vision of the State that Xóchitl lacks. Faced with the ideas, the allusions to the historical and political context, to the complex nature of the problems of Mexico and the world presented by the former Tlaxcalteca governor, the simple phrases of the Hidalgo native seemed out of place. Popular market lexicon has very little success in stock market circles.
While it is true that in recent days she has tried to stick to the cards she has written, there is a dose of improvisation inevitable in any electoral campaign that will be a tough challenge in the months to come. And her strategists and publicists are trapped in a dilemma that is difficult to solve: her greatest virtue when facing the street is her self-confident freshness; His worst defect in the face of the establishment and the decision-making circles of this country is, precisely, his brazen freshness.
In short, we should ask ourselves if several of the great captains of money, the financial circuits, academic and intellectual environments, critical middle classes and in general sectors that have questioned some or many practices of the 4T, will feel comfortable imagining a character like this one in the presidential chair. Some yes, others maybe not so much. After all, the Government that Claudia Sheinbaum promises is one that would continue financial stability and prudence in the management of national accounts, without the verbal belligerence of López Obrador. The alternative is not necessarily reassuring: if the opposition were to win, the markets would have to consider the risks of ungovernability due to the reaction of potential dissatisfied majorities. Whether you like it or not, the 4T Government has been a factor of political stability. In short, between a Government of Claudia Sheinbaum, to which they would already know what to expect, and one of Xóchitl with characters like “Alito” Moreno, Marko Cortés and Claudio X buzzing around, I am not sure who the Carlos Slims and the like would prefer.
Will Xóchitl be removed from the race as some leftist circles are anticipating, rubbing their hands? I don’t think so because they don’t have anyone better in sight to turn to. The last date to register candidates for the presidential ballot is February 29; Until that moment, the established parties have the possibility of changing their minds, meeting the requirements of the case. But in view of the inventory, any option would be equivalent to another way of losing. So, except for some major imponderable, from which no one is safe in politics, it seems to me that the die is cast.
Jorge Zepeda Patterson
He is a journalist and writer.