The situation has reversed and property prices have risen-C view: Shi Yongqing-am730

The situation has reversed and property prices have risen

I am relatively optimistic about the property market this year, and expect residential property prices to rise by as much as 15%. This forecast is obviously higher than the expectations of many market participants. The reason is that property prices were still able to hold up under the impact of many unfavorable news last year, indicating that their foundation is very solid. The law of the market is to go to the opposite side, and if it can’t be suppressed, it turns and rises. What’s more, the objective situation has been reversed, the bad news has been digested, and the new news is mostly good for the property market, so I expect the property market to get rid of the long-term stagnation this year and show a more obvious increase.

In today’s society, information flows very fast; whether it is good news or bad news, it will spread throughout the market in a short time, and the market will respond immediately. Therefore, the impact of news on the market is the strongest at the beginning, and then it will gradually fade. I have seen some comments. It is really wishful thinking to talk about the bad news last year and use it to explain that property prices will fall. Their willingness to speculate is obviously out of touch with the development of the situation.

Take the United States’ vigorous sanctions on Hong Kong as an example. The United States does not verbally tell the truth, but through legislation to revoke the special treatment that Hong Kong has previously received. Treat Hong Kong like other Chinese cities. Some people think that this is equivalent to the sentence of capital punishment in Hong Kong. In the future, Hong Kong will no longer have a role to play between China and the West. One country, two systems is dead, Hong Kong’s economy will decline from then on, and there will be no prospects at all.

However, this argument has been sung and sung in the past half a year. If it will work, it should have been seen. However, the fact is that the status of Hong Kong’s financial center and trade center has not been shaken. The stock market’s trading volume has reached a historical peak, the source of funds has flowed in, and the Hong Kong exchange rate index has remained high. Even if the epidemic has not passed, Hong Kong’s trade with the world has quickly recovered, and there is a surplus, which is better than most other places affected by the epidemic. Therefore, it is meaningless to repeat the negative impact of the US sanctions on Hong Kong. If this kind of news doesn’t work, it will be more difficult to stir up the speculation in the future. What’s more, after Biden is on the court, his approach will be gentler and more rational than Trump’s, and Hong Kong must find more room for maneuver than before.

On the other hand, all signs show that the external circulation of China’s economy has not shrunk due to the suppression of the United States, but has changed the circulation route and changed its dealings with different countries. The United States chooses to cut itself off from China, and has its own EU and ASEAN to fill the position. As long as China’s external circulation continues, Hong Kong’s role as a super broker is equally valuable, and Hong Kong’s economic prospects remain bright.

Furthermore, a vaccine for the new crown pneumonia is already available. As more people are vaccinated, the epidemic should be gradually controlled, economic activities can gradually return to normal, and the negative impact of the epidemic on the economy can gradually disappear.

In this situation, potential buyers who were hesitating because of the unfavorable news over the market can make decisions. Take the last Saturday and Sunday as an example, the second-hand market saw a surge in trading. According to front-line colleagues, on the second day of the Lunar New Year, some customers insisted on finding the owner to “subscribe”. Centaline Properties announced that there were 37 transactions in the top ten housing estates last Saturday and Sunday, the best performance after the Chinese New Year in the past eight years. As trading increases, the opportunity cost of making late decisions increases. For this reason, I expect the property market to turn from a decline to an increase in the first quarter of this year.

Source: https://www.am730.com.hk/column/News/The situation has reversed and property prices have risen -256956

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