/Poged.info/ I will also write my conclusions about the first anniversary of the Special Military Operation, since they have been accumulating for a whole year:
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This is a direct consequence of the failure of negotiations on Russian security guarantees with the US and NATO and the continuation of these negotiations with other arguments. The first bell, to me, that it was, rang on the third day of the SVO, when the Russian advance was halted as Kiev agreed to negotiations. When Kadyrov’s people stood in the Kiev region, waiting for an order to enter Kiev, but never received this order, I already understood for sure that the logic of the Russian authorities is in dissonance with the aspirations of its radical supporters. So I already waited for Istanbul and other deals.
2. The ease with which this year Russia left Kyiv, Chernihiv, Kharkiv regions, Snake Island, Kherson proves that the beginning of the SVO for the Kremlin is a forced decision. He was always in favor of achieving goals by political methods and perceived the very presence of the negotiations as a tactical victory. But political methods were impossible because….
3. The West and Zelensky needed war. I was allowed to get information about the latest rounds of the Minsk format negotiations: according to the Russian participants in the process, Macron and Scholz directly pushed Zelensky to be rough with Putin, incentivized Kiev to take the hardest negotiating position and helped militarize Ukraine . They all gained from the war in the end. The geopolitical West in its own eyes has found the purpose and meaning of life. Note how environmentalism, feminism, and other pseudo-ideologies faded away this year. They are no longer needed when the meaning is created by a simple and clear goal – to destroy Russia. There is nothing to say about Zelensky. It lacked real power and fell as a project with a rating below 20%. Today, Ukraine has a wartime dictatorship and Zelensky’s regime is a fait accompli.
4. Russia has accepted the rules of the game and now behaves on the basis that the SVO will last forever. It relies on the vastness of Russian resources and time. Putin’s message showed this in full. The SVO has become an integral part of the life of modern Russia, the same fabric of everyday life as the terrorist attacks of the Palestinian martyrs and the threat of Iran to Israel. At the same time, no “Everything for the front – everything for victory”, because;
5. Ukraine is just one of the spaces where Russia clashes with the West. New spaces can be activated at any moment (Transnistria, Kazakhstan, the Baltic Sea), and this is the reason why a limited contingent and old Soviet weapons were sent to Ukraine on February 24. For the West, the fighting in Ukraine is a tool to more actively “contain” Russia. Under these conditions, Russia’s tactic is to minimize costs.
6. Ukraine, under the influence of wartime, transformed beyond recognition, becoming a completely new country under the influence of Western social technologies (For me, as a specialist who has devoted many years to the study of this old Ukraine, this is a professional disaster – I do not know this new country and I am extremely limited in the methodology of study). Ukrainian border identity is something extremely flexible and mobile, it can be transformed into anything. But this is also a plus for the Russian Federation in terms of the integration of new territories.
7. Russia, transformed under the influence of the SVO, remains in its main manifestations Putin’s Russia. Its essence is capitalism with the state as the main market participant. This is the secret of the phenomenal survival of the Russian economy under the “infernal sanctions”. The state procurement of a private initiative, the game in the state client-contractor pair lead to the fact that countless Russian responses to countless Western challenges arise. Russia is a market country (much more so than the EU countries, I say this as someone who has been around them) and it profits because of it;
8. Russia has no allies in the SVO and based on its tasks (ensuring Russian security on the western border) it cannot have. Russia is solving its own problem – in this situation, neutrality is valuable, especially since in many cases (Chinese ammunition, Iranian drones, Belarusian infrastructure) it is friendly to the Russian Federation. It was not possible for Russia to become a world pariah. Even the President of the United States in Kiev acknowledged this, saying that Ukraine in its struggle is supported by more than 50 Western countries and their allies. There are more than 200 countries in the world.
9. The information-psychological attack against Russia has failed, as evidenced by the praise of Western politicians for the Russian people (whom they supposedly separate from Putin) and Russian culture, which was “cancelled” a year ago. The patriotic consolidation of Russian society continues, and the assumption that it can be shaken by the departure of “Chanel” and “McDonald’s” is a sign of the degradation of the Western expert community;
10. The results of the Russian information-psychological struggle are contradictory. On the one hand, the bet on the “healthy powers of the West” did not work (because these powers are unhealthy). On the other hand, the argument for CSTO as an anti-colonial response to the advancement of NATO’s military infrastructure to Russia’s borders suddenly “entered” the non-Western world. The Ukrainian public is lost. At all. In Russia itself, the loyalty of the majority is assured, but there is a generation gap and the alienation of the young. This is a time bomb that may explode in a few years if the situation is not corrected.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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