South America new seasonsoybeansThe high yield is almost a foregone conclusion. With the large harvest of Brazilian soybeans on the market, it is expected that the supply and demand of the market will turn loose. The supply of imported soybeans in my country is abundant, and domestic breeding losses limit procurement demand from downstream enterprises.soybean mealThe price may continue to fluctuate and run weak.
After the Lantern Festival, the oil mills have basically resumed work. This week, the volume of soybean grinding will climb to more than 2 million tons, and the supply of soybean meal will increase. On the at one time, because the price of pigs and grain entered the first level warning range of excessive decline, the breeding has suffered losses, but the price of soybean meal has remained high and volatile. , It is expected that the downstream will be more careful when picking up goods, and will pick up mainly as needed.
Brazil exports accelerate, US soybean pressure appears
Data from consulting firm Safras showed that, on 3 February, the 2022/2023 Brazilian soybean sales volume was 46.72 million tonnes, equivalent to 30.5% of expected output, up from 28.5% on January 6 and lower than the same period last year.44.1 %, also lower than the five-year average of 44.8% for the same period. Advance sales have been slow due to a slow soybean harvest in Brazil and farmers looking to sell at higher prices. In contrast, old Brazilian soybean sales are better. As of February 3, Brazilian farmers have sold 97.9% of 2021/2022 soybeans, up from 96% on January 6; The year-on-year average was 97.3%.
The Brazilian soybean harvest is in sight, but weather factors have slowed procurement progress year after year. The Brazilian consultancy Homeland Agribusiness (PAN) said that the increase of the Brazilian soybean harvest on 2 February 2022/2023 was 9.86%, compared to 20.4% in the same period last year, due to the slow progress of the harvest mainly due to rain. production areas. The Safras Consultancy expects Brazil’s soybean harvest to be 7.8 percent, down from 17.1 percent a year earlier and the five-year average of 10 percent for this time of year. Consulting firm AgRural said Brazil’s soybean harvest for the 2022/2023 season was 9% complete as of February 2, lagging from the 16% achieved a year earlier. Safras forecast Brazilian soybean production at a record high of 154.373 million tons, while the USDA’s February report kept its forecast of 153 million tons unchanged.
Brazil’s new soybean harvest is scheduled, but harvest progress is slow, sales are not as good as in previous years, and the US Department of Agriculture has lowered Argentina’s production forecast, all of which support US soybean price. .
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) reported in its weekly report that Argentina’s soybean planting progress for the 2022/2023 season was 100% for the week ending February 1, 2023, up from 99.3% a week earlier. Rain over the past week has led to better soil moisture, with 47 per cent of soybeans in fair to excellent condition, up from 37 per cent a week ago. However, the high temperatures and less rainy weather in December and the first half of January in 2022, together with the fact that the fastest growing soybeans have started to enter a critical growth period, still be able to affect current expectations of soybean production. As of February 1, 32.4% of Argentina’s soybean crop was in the critical stage of crop formation. The exchange forecasts Argentina’s soybean production at 41 million tonnes, down from 43.3 million tonnes in the previous season. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) also cut its forecast for Argentina’s soybean production by 4.5 million tonnes in February to 41 million tonnes, down from 43.9 million tonnes in the previous season.
South American soybean harvest My country’s imports may increase
On February 6, the National Grains and Oils Information Center released the “Monthly Report on Oil and Oilseed Supply and Demand” in February. It is estimated that in 2022/2023 (October to September of the following year), my country’s protein meal production will be 96.06 million tons, an increase of 4.37 million tons from year to year; Imports are expected to be 3.15 million tonnes, a year-on-year decrease of 1.04 million tonnes. The consumption of protein meals for this year is estimated at 95.24 million tonnes, a year-on-year increase of 2.29 million tonnes; the export volume is expected to be 940,000 tonnes, a year-on-year increase of 430,000 tonnes. the balance of supply and demand for annual protein meals is expected to be 340,000 tonnes.
Starting from May 2022, the number of fertile sows on hand will rebound. According to the latest data from the Office of National Statistics, by the end of the fourth quarter of 2022, my country’s breeding sow population will be 43.9 million, a month-on-month increase of 0.6% and a year-on-year increase. of 1.4%. According to the monitoring of the National Development and Reform Commission, during the week of January 30 to February 3, 2023, the national average hog grain price ratio was 4.96:1, entering the first-level early warning range for a decline excessive. Recently, the price of live pigs has fallen, and breeding profits have fallen. Some companies have reduced the proportion of soya bean meal that is added to feed. In addition, given the intensive production of live pigs during the Festival the Spring, the demand for protein the consumption of meals will be weak in the first half of 2023. The start of purchasing and reserve storage provides favorable policy support, the number of fertile sows has increased for the eighth month in a row , and production capacity has continued to resume growth. The inertia of stock growth is still driving the demand for feed consumption to some extent, The consumption of protein meal feed in 2022/2023 is estimated to be 96.06 million tonnes, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%. Among them, the consumption of soybean meal was 76.31 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%.
According to customs data, from October to December 2022, my country has imported a total of 22.04 million tons of soybeans, a decrease of 510,000 tons or 2.3% over the same period the previous year. Since the second half of 2022, international soybean prices have fallen from high levels. In addition, the new South American soybean harvest is almost a foregone conclusion. With a large number of Brazilian soybeans harvested and listed, supply is expected to and market demand becomes freer, and the supply of imported soybeans will be plentiful. With the recovery of the economic situation and downstream consumption, the consumption of protein meal is still on the rise this year, which will lead to an increase in the demand for soybean imports. It is estimated that my country will import 95 million tons of soybeans in 2022/2023, which is higher than the 91.61 million tonnes in the previous year.
Poor farming profits reduce demand for soybean meal
On February 8, the spot price of 43% protein soybean meal in coastal areas was 4,570-4,710 yuan / ton, an increase of 30-60 yuan / ton from last week. Among them, 4,630-4,710 yuan/ton in North China, 4,570-4,680 yuan/ton in East China, and 4,620-4,700 yuan/ton in South China. The spot base quote M2305 + 670-780 yuan / ton, down 20-40 yuan / ton compared to the same period last week.
In the first week after the Spring Festival holidays, oil plant start-ups have not yet returned to normal levels. Monitoring shows that last week’s domestic soybean crushing was 1.28 million tonnes, an increase of 1.25 million tonnes over the previous week, a decrease of 710,000 tonnes over the same period last month, and an increase of 1.1 million tonnes year on year after a year. Downstream feed companies raised commodities one after the other, and soybean meal inventories fell slightly. On February 3, the inventory of soybean meal from major domestic oil factories was 460,000 tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons compared to the same period last week, a decrease of 130,000 tons compared to the same period last month, and an increase of 140,000 tonnes compared with the same period last year.
US soybean crush is in high demand and profits are high. Argentina, the main exporter of soybean meal, is expected to reduce its output, which will support US soybean prices in the short term; however, there will soon be a large number of Brazilian soybeans on the market, which could put pressure on prices. In addition, domestic breeding losses are limiting procurement demand from downstream enterprises, and soybean meal prices Or will continues to run weak.
Indonesia’s limited exports are boosting the palm oil market
On February 8, 24 degrees in domestic coastal areaspalm treeThe price of oil is 7900-8080 yuan / ton, an increase of 180-200 yuan / ton over the same period last week. Among them, Tianjin is 8,070 yuan / ton, Shandong Rizhao is 8,080 yuan / ton, Jiangsu Zhangjiagang is 7,980 yuan / ton, Fujian Xiamen is 7,950 yuan / ton, and Guangdong Guangzhou is 7,900 yuan / ton. The palm oil port inventory remained the same as last week. The base price of palm oil in coastal areas generally ranged from P2305-100 to +80 yuan/ton. The increase in the price of palm oil was imports support domestic costs, and the price base remains stable.
Monitoring shows that on February 8, the CNF price of Malaysian 24 grade palm oil for March 2023 shipment was quoted at US$1,020/tonne, equivalent to 8,330 yuan/tonne (9% tariff and value added tax of 9%) on duty. -cost paid to Hong Kong, higher than DCE Palm oil contract 2305 300 yuan/ton higher than last week, an increase of 30 yuan/ton since last week; The price of CNF palm oil for shipment from August to September 2023 is 1,000 US dollars/tonne, which is equivalent to 8,070 yuan/tonne of Hong Kong duty payment cost, which is higher than the contract cost 2309 High 155 yuan / ton. The edible palm oil inventory in coastal areas was 820,000 tonnes (plus 980,000 tonnes of industrial palm), which was flat from one week to the next, increased by 40,000 tonnes month-on-month, and increased by 490,000 tonnes year after year. Among them, 130,000 tons were produced in Tianjin, 300,000 tons in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu, and 240,000 tons in Guangdong. Domestic palm oil inventories are high, and the supply side remains under pressure.
Survey data showed Malaysia’s palm oil stockpiles were likely to fall to a five-month low as exports and production fell sharply. Indonesian officials said on Monday that Indonesia will suspend most palm oil export licenses to ensure domestic supplies due to rising domestic edible oil prices ahead of Muslim holidays. Indonesian exporters can currently use about a third of the existing export licenses, with the rest remaining to be used after May 1. Exporters had licenses to export about 5.9 million tons of palm oil at the end of January.
Strengthening soybean oil futures and US crude oil prices will boost the performance of Mapan palm oil At the same time, Indonesia is restricting the export of some palm oil. Malaysia’s palm oil inventory may fall to five months, which will also support prices and pushing up my country’s import costs Palm oil prices are expected to be stable and relatively strong in the short term.
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