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The theory of regime change is good… Young people and mid-level expansion are the key factors[대선 D-100일③]

People’s Power Presidential Candidate Yoon Seok-yeol speaks at the ‘Election D-100, the launching ceremony of the Youth Committee and Youth Headquarters Thinking of Tomorrow’ held at the House Cafe in Yeouido, Seoul on the afternoon of the 28th. (Photo = Yonhap News)

[이데일리 박태진 기자] Yoon Seok-yeol, the People’s Strength presidential candidate, recently launched the National Election Countermeasures Committee, spurring the election campaign in earnest. The decision is that there should be no further delay in the appointment of former emergency committee chairman Kim Jong-in to the previous squadron. Furthermore, delaying the launch of the predecessor committee could act as a negative factor for the ‘regime change theory’ through the gathering of anti-munist forces and approval ratings.

尹 “The start of the overwhelming power change campaign”

Candidate Yoon announced the appointment of the election leader at the party’s supreme committee meeting on the 26th, saying, “It is difficult for the election campaign to be delayed further, and it is a situation where we have to run while saving every minute and every second.” I will also start a grand campaign for an overwhelming regime change,” he declared.

Candidate Yoon’s strengths, which set the goal of overwhelming regime change, include high approval ratings and strong determination. In most opinion polls, the Democratic Party’s presidential candidate Lee Jae-myung outperformed the margin of error. In particular, the fact that he is quickly adapting to politics, such as winning the presidential candidate of the first opposition party within four months of entering politics, is also considered a strength. It is also analyzed that the high public opinion for regime change is also acting as a positive factor.

Respondents were asked about their perceptions of the 20th presidential election in the 4th week of November (22nd-24th) NBS conducted jointly by four companies specializing in opinion surveys: Embrain Republic, K-Stat Research, Korea Research, and Korea Research. 48% of respondents answered ‘the theory of government judgment’ and 39% chose ‘theory of national stability’.

On the other hand, the disadvantage of Candidate Yoon is that he has no experience in politics and administration as he is a ‘political rookie’. It is pointed out that the future vision and policy capabilities have not been verified. Candidate Yoon failed to make the first promise as a candidate for the People’s Power presidential election as the launch of the election committee was delayed.

Another variable that increases Yoon’s uncertainty is the legal risk of himself and his family. He is currently on the investigation line of the Office of Public Officials Crime Investigation regarding the allegation of the accuser.

The Democratic Party raised the ‘Special Committee on Family Corruption of the Yoon Seok-Yeol Family’ and raised suspicions of Candidate Yoon’s accusation and investigation into the bankruptcy of the Busan Savings Bank, his wife’s manipulation of Deutsche Motors’ stock price, and his mother-in-law’s expedient donations, raising suspicions of the ‘head of the division’ (him, wife, mother-in-law) is emphasizing risks.

In addition, mistakes in speech and behavior that occurred during the primary are considered as a task that Yoon must overcome. Candidate Yoon is said to have recently contacted image training experts and received advice on styling (hair style, clothing concept), speaking attitude, and sitting method in order to make up for his mistakes in speech and behavior and his image of a ‘manly man’. She is changing from a style that covers her forehead with her hair to a form that reveals her forehead, and she also puts on eyebrows to create a clean, urban image.

Young people likely to vote for alternatives to real estate and unemployment policies

The vote of the 2030 generation, which has emerged as a ‘casting boat’, is also expected to be a major variable. In a poll released by Korea Research on the 8th, the approval rate of candidate Yoon in his 20s was low at 16.7%. The approval rate for those in their 30s was also low at 24.1%. The sampling error of the above opinion poll is ±3.1 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. For more information, visit the website of the National Election Opinion Survey Deliberation Committee.

How effectively we present policy alternatives related to the major concerns of the young generation, such as real estate, unemployment, and gender conflict, is expected to influence the votes in 2030.

As the degree of unity of each camp is expected to increase as the election draws nearer, the key point is who succeeds in expanding the middle ground. It is observed that candidate Yoon will attack midway through the ‘anti-moon big tent’ by gathering the theory of regime change. The recent addition of Kim Han-gil, former Democratic Party leader, to the election committee is also read as part of this.

In addition, unification is also expected to be a variable. This is because if Candidate Jae-myung Lee and Candidate Yoon are in a tight streak, and if the People’s Party presidential candidate Ahn Cheol-soo maintains an approval rating of around 5% until the end, it can be a variable that will change the election result. An official from People’s Power said, “If Ahn’s approval rating is maintained, unification is also worth considering. However, if Ahn’s approval ratings show a decline, the unifying variable may disappear,” he said.

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