The theme strategy of the eight major securities companies: the building materials sector can be more optimistic! How much is the upside?Real estate chain leader carding
Daily theme strategy discussion, Oriental Fortune Network summarizes the views of eight major securities companies, reveals the current situation of the industry, observes the market trend, and gives you the pulse of A shares in advance.
500)this.width=500″ align=”center” hspace=”10″ vspace=”10″ rel=”nofollow”/>Tianfeng Securities: Real estate front-end data has been repaired in May and continue to be optimistic about real estate chain building materials
From the perspective of actual demand, the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities in the first 17 days of June fell by 21.7% year-on-year, while the year-on-year decline in May was 48.3%. In June, the decline continued to narrow. We believe that the current sales area is at In the stage of gradual recovery, as the recovery process continues, the delivery side of building materials in the real estate chain is expected to have an opportunity for improvement.
Continue to be optimistic about stable growth and growth-related varieties, and recommend consumption of building materials/new materials. 1) Last year, consumer building materials were affected by the real estate boom, capital chain, and cost pressures brought about by the continuous rise in commodity prices. At present, the above factors are expected to gradually improve. In the medium and long term, leading companies have started channel reforms, and the scale effect is expected to make the industry concentrated Consumption of building materials is still the medium and long-term preferred track for the building materials sector.
2) New materials such as glass and carbon fiber are facing high downstream demand and domestic substitution opportunities. Leading companies have high technical barriers and are expected to usher in a period of rapid growth.
3) The downstream of the plastic pipe segment has both infrastructure and real estate. The infrastructure side is expected to benefit from the increase in investment in municipal pipeline networks. The real estate side has a similar logic to the recovery of consumer building materials.
4) Cement is expected to benefit from the expected improvement in subsequent infrastructure and real estate demand. In the medium and long term, the supply pattern is expected to continue to be optimized.
5) The current market value of glass faucets has been at a low level. The overall supply and demand of the industry may still be in a tight balance this year. The downside of float glass unit profits is limited. Photovoltaic glass is expected to benefit from the recovery of the industry chain.
6) The demand side of glass fiber is driven by downstream wind power and overseas, and the supply side increment is limited. The recovery of electronic downstream demand is expected to drive the electronic yarn boom.
Everbright Securities: The bottom of the fundamentals of the real estate industry may be confirmed, and the leading companies in consumer building materials may usher in a double improvement in valuation and fundamentals
In May, the year-on-year growth rate of real estate sales and new construction orders both showed an inflection point, and the bottom of the fundamentals of the real estate industry may have been confirmed. In the future, with the release and implementation of more easing policies, the sales data may usher in a continuous recovery, which in turn will drive the recovery of new starts and completions. With the continuous improvement of real estate sales data, leading consumer building materials companies may usher in a double improvement in valuation and fundamentals. It is recommended to allocate leading companies in the subdivision track, and we recommend Dongfang Yuhong, Beixin Building Materials, and Weixing New Materials. It is recommended to pay attention Kin Long Hardware. With the bottoming out of the real estate cycle and the continuous advancement of “guaranteed delivery”, the logic of completion and restoration will continue to be performed. The previous backlog of demand in the glass industry is expected to be released in a concentrated manner, and corporate profits are expected to see a bottoming out and return to a high boom, which will drive the relevant underlying stock prices to rise. . Kibing Group and CSG A are recommended, and Jinjing Technology is recommended.
Changjiang Securities: Real estate sales significantly repair the building materials sector can be more optimistic
From the review point of view, when the bottom of the sales is repaired, the building materials sector can be more optimistic about the transmission of the fundamentals. After the real estate policy is clearly turned, most of them will be transmitted to the real estate sales and other fundamental data after about 1-2 quarters; For home improvement building materials, due to the time lag in the transmission of demand in the industrial chain, the stabilization of the fundamentals is 2-3 quarters after the stabilization of real estate sales. From the perspective of stock price transmission, there are mainly two variables that affect the turning point of home improvement building materials: real estate sales and corporate fundamentals. At the same time, if real estate sales bottom out and corporate fundamentals bottom out, the stock price will see an inflection point, otherwise it will often rebound. Real estate sales are the most important indicators of whether the real estate chain target can be overweighted. After the sales growth rate is confirmed to bottom (without turning positive), the bottom of the stock price is often confirmed by judging the bottom of the company’s fundamentals.
Q2 bottom grinding shocks, Q3 elastic release, preferred high-quality home improvement faucets Q2 basic bottom grinding shocks, Q3 is expected to release elasticity: At present, the bottom of the real estate sales growth rate has been established, and the subsequent upward trend may be further manifested under the base effect and demand recovery. At the same time, the bottom of the company’s fundamentals may have been gradually ground. Q2 is basically confirmed to be the bottom of the fundamentals. It is expected that driven by demand recovery, the superimposed epidemic prevention and control will further improve and the seasonality will turn from weak to strong. The fundamentals of Q3 have a high probability. Ushering in a more obvious repair, some companies are expected to release growth and profitability flexibility.
The fundamental bottom of the short-term real estate chain target has been clear, and under the trend of bottoming out and rebounding in real estate sales, the inflection point of the stock price will also appear. In the medium and long term, this round of β-repair may be weak, and the growth of the company itself is more important. Concentration (including channel reform) and category extension are the core goals of the configuration. The configuration ideas include more definite growth (Oriental Yuhong, Three Keshu, Jianlang Hardware, Weixing New Materials) and more cost-effective low valuations (Beixin Building Materials, Bunny), other targets in the real estate chain will also benefit.
Soochow Securities: Short-term emotions catalyze the valuation flexibility of decoration building materials!In the mid-term, the demand for infrastructure construction ends earlier, and the materials at the construction end are relatively more elastic.
Short-term sentiment catalyzes the elasticity of the valuation of decoration building materials. In the medium-term, the demand for infrastructure construction ends earlier, and the materials at the start-up end are relatively more elastic, such as cement and waterproof materials. Industry leaders are often the companies that expand against the trend and take the lead in increasing leverage at the bottom of the industry. Recommend Huaxin Cement, Oriental Yuhong, Keshun Co., Ltd., Jianlang Hardware, Beixin Building Materials, Weixing New Materials, and suggest paying attention to Shangfeng Cement, Conch Cement, China Lesso, etc.
In terms of bulk building materials: the demand in the Yangtze River Delta continued to rise month-on-month with the resumption of production and work, but seasonal factors such as rain and busy farming restricted the recovery of the overall demand across the country. Therefore, the month-on-month improvement in shipments was weak but the year-on-year recovery was obvious. The worst time for the industry or has gradually passed. In the short term, the more competitive market prices in East China and Central China have been upside down with clinker prices, and are approaching the cost line of high-cost enterprises, and the follow-up downside is relatively limited. Under the policy of comprehensively strengthening infrastructure, as the epidemic eases, East China has accelerated the resumption of work, and the implementation of infrastructure projects will contribute to physical demand. Cement demand in June is expected to continue to improve month-on-month, and will be released in the third and fourth quarters. The recovery of demand and the restoration of industry coordination are still optimistic about the price elasticity of the peak season in the second half of the year, especially the markets along the Yangtze River and the Pearl River Delta with relatively high capacity utilization and good industry structure.
In terms of decoration and building materials: the gradual implementation of infrastructure investment and the rush to work after the epidemic is expected to boost demand, but the price pressure on the cost side such as asphalt is still great. Waterproof companies have issued a second round of price increases. The delivery and order situation of decoration building materials is expected to improve, and the cost pressure is gradually transmitted. With the gradual effect of the real estate relaxation policy, bad debt provision and cash flow risk expectations gradually released, the sector as a whole is expected to usher in performance and valuation repairs. With reference to the historical experience of the consumer building materials sector and the current competitive situation, some companies may take the lead in taking advantage of channel leadership, operating efficiency advantages or financing and leverage to further increase their share in the stage of capital easing in the real estate industry + confidence gradually recovering from the bottom. , Entering a new expansion cycle, the inflection point of the growth rate of shipments or orders can be used as a signal on the right. Recommend Oriental Yuhong, Keshun Co., Ltd., Jianlang Hardware, Beixin Building Materials, Weixing New Materials, Mona Lisa, Karen Co., Ltd., Leizhi Group, and suggest to pay attention to China Lesso, AD Shares, Walrus New Materials, etc.
China Galaxy Securities: There is still room for improvement in consumer demand for building materials under the background of continuous real estate policies
In the context of the continuous development of the real estate policy, the completion end will gradually recover, superimposed on the release of the demand for old renovation, the promotion of urbanization in county towns, and the expansion of municipal and infrastructure businesses by consumer building materials companies, there is still room for improvement in consumer building materials demand.
In terms of investment advice, consumer building materials: we recommend leading companies with scale advantages and product quality advantages, Oriental Yuhong, AD Shares, Weixing New Materials, BNBM, Keshun Shares, and Jianlang Hardware. Glass fiber: China Jushi, the glass fiber leader recommended for further expansion of production capacity. Cement: Huaxin Cement and Shangfeng Cement, the leading enterprises in the cement area, are recommended. Glass: It is recommended to pay attention to Kibing Group and CSG A, which have an increasing proportion of high-end products.
China Merchants Securities: Waiting for real estate chain companies to usher in performance inflection points and valuation repairs in the second half of the year
The data in May shows that the current real estate market is still bottoming out, but the transaction data of new houses and second-hand houses has recovered in some markets, waiting for the real estate chain companies to usher in the performance inflection point and valuation repair in the second half of the year; the retail market has shown a month-on-month improvement in the short term; Taking into account the tight capital chain of big B, the slowdown in the growth rate of centralized procurement, the second-hand housing market is the first to pick up, the construction of affordable housing continues to advance, the development of green building materials to the countryside, and the outstanding anti-inflation ability of superimposed 2C companies, we still maintain this year’s C-end ( Including small B) the judgment of market dominance. The industry pressure has prompted the consumer building materials industry to accelerate the clearing, and the brand power/channel power/scale advantages of leading companies have further emerged, and the industry concentration is expected to continue to increase. Investment suggestions: Weixing New Materials, Beixin Building Materials, Mona Lisa, Oriental Yuhong, Keshun Co., Ltd., Asia Chuangneng, Keda Manufacturing, Dongpeng Holdings, Haomei New Materials, Zhite New Materials.
Huachuang Securities: The start-up end is expected to improve simultaneously with sales, and the prosperity of consumer building materials is expected to be ahead
Cement sector: Conch Cement is highly recommended, and Shangfeng Cement, Huaxin Cement and Qingsong Jianhua are recommended. Glass segment: The completion in 2022 is expected to show a weaker first half of the year and a stronger second half. The inflection point of growth rate is likely to appear at the end of 22Q3, driving the recovery of glass demand. The industry supply side has been shrinking. It is expected that the peak of cold repair will come in 22Q1 , supply and demand are in tandem, and the Kibing Group is mainly recommended. Glass fiber sector: mid-to-long-term planning for wind power, increasing demand for glass fiber materials, and focusing on recommending China Jushi.
Consumption building materials sector: The start-up end is expected to improve simultaneously with sales, and the consumption of building materials at the start-up end is expected to lead. The gypsum board mainly recommends BNBM; the waterproof industry mainly recommends Dongfang Yuhong and Keshun. The pipe industry focuses on Weixing New Materials and Yonggao Co., Ltd. The hardware industry focuses on Jianlang Hardware. The paint industry focuses on Three Trees.
Shengang Securities: The Beginning of Paying Attention to the Trend of Consumer Building Materials!Take the lead in laying out the sub-sectors where the cost of raw materials has stabilized
Pay attention to the beginning of the trending market for consumer building materials. Fundamentals bottomed out in May, and real estate sales are also expected to bottom out. We look forward to continued marginal improvement. The stock price bottom may have already appeared, and we will take the lead in sub-sectors where the cost of raw materials has stabilized (greater performance improvement). range). We believe that the logic of expanding categories and increasing concentration has not changed, and high-quality companies with alpha attributes such as Yuhong and Weixing are still scarce. Continue to recommend the leading consumer building materials Oriental Yuhong, Weixing New Materials, and Three Trees.
In terms of investment strategies, the stable growth chain focuses on the strong Dongqiang Yuhong, the steel structure leader Honglu Steel, which continues to deliver large-scale dividends; the real estate recovery is the first to recommend Weixing New Materials, which has a dominant consumption attribute in building materials, and Adversity Reverse. The three trees that have been transferred are recommended to pay attention to the board leader Bunny with steady growth in performance; the new materials recommend that the traditional business maintain a high prosperity while entering the new growth period of Kibing Group.
(Article source: Financial Associated Press)