delivery time2023-03-28 10:17
WSJ diagnoses war of attrition as Russia’s ‘endurance’ … “There is a fear that China will invade Taiwan.”
(Bahmut AP = Yonhap News) Ukrainian troops will enter trenches near eastern Bahmut, a hotly contested position, on Tuesday (local time). The British Ministry of Defense recently reported that Russian attacks on Bahmut had largely subsided. A Ukrainian military official also said that the number of clashes between the two sides in the region has plunged from an average of 30 to 50 per day to less than 20. 2023.03.27 clynnkim@yna.co.kr
(Seoul = Yonhap News) Correspondent Lim Hwa-seop = The West hopes for an end to the war after the recovery of Donbass in Ukraine, but the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on the 27th (local time) that they think about him. because they can’t see a way.
According to the WSJ, the United States and European countries hope that Ukraine will launch a counteroffensive in the spring and make a “hole” in Russia’s control of occupied Ukrainian territory.
In theory, Ukraine’s dominance on the battlefield would allow Russia to push for peace talks to cede the Donbass region it occupied after launching an invasion in February 2022.
But few Western officials are convinced that a war and peace agreement in Ukraine will develop so neatly.
Instead, a scenario where either Ukraine or Russia are defeated or run out of strength to call for a cease-fire is much more likely, and many diplomats observe that this outcome will take years rather than months.
Western leaders are also divided over what to ask of Russia once the war is over. While French President Emmanuel Macron and others insist that Russia should not be humiliated, others believe that the Russian military may need to be permanently weakened.
Western diplomats observe that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin are fighting an “existential battle” over the future of their respective countries and believe they can emerge victorious.
Avril Haynes, director of the US National Intelligence Service (DNI), said at a Senate Intelligence Committee hearing earlier this month that “Putin is likely to calculate that time is on his side.”
In addition, the idea that the United States could reduce support for Ukraine if the government is replaced in the 2024 election of the United States and a Republican administration is installed could be behind Putin’s choice to ‘suffer’.
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Despite the US-led sanctions against Russia, the Russian economy is not collapsing. The fact that China supports Russia and that India and others continue to buy Russian crude oil is also a factor that keeps the Russian economy afloat.
Western diplomats note that Putin chose to resist Western pressure and achieved success in the 2008 invasion of Georgia, the 2014 occupation of Crimea, and the 2015 military intervention in the Syrian civil war.
Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said in an interview on the 24th that the US would not let Ukraine fall, but was “more concerned about our Western European partners and allies who are less patient” .
Ukraine has received Western arms support, but is struggling to regain the Russian-occupied Donbass region.
The WSJ quoted an unnamed senior European diplomat as saying, “It’s not hard to design a peace process in the abstract,” and “It’s much, much harder to find a point where (a peace process) becomes a realistic option. “.
The WSJ pointed out that China’s ambition to take over Taiwan is also a factor in the West’s view that continuing aid to Ukraine as it is now is “the only acceptable option, no matter how uncertain it is.”
According to US intelligence officials, Chinese President Xi Jinping has instructed the military to prepare for an invasion if he decides to invade Taiwan.
However, Western diplomats observe that if Xi really wants to launch an invasion, he will need to have strong convictions about the possibility of success.
Like Putin, Xi Jinping sees history as being on his side. The global financial crisis and America’s chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan are signs that US global hegemony is fading.
Western allies fear that if the West’s resolve towards Ukraine were to weaken, it would send a message that Xi is right, which could lead to disaster.
limhwasop@yna.co.kr
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