Source: Western Futures Author: Western Futures
The subject of the research report
1. Longzhong news information on September 22, this week in ChinamethanolOutput was 1.4936 million tonnes, up 1.13% month on month; the average weekly capacity utilization rate was 73.97%.
2. Longzhong Information reported on 22 September that the overall operating rate of methanol to olefins this week was 78.15%, up 5.11% from last week; dimethyl ether, formaldehyde, acetic acid and chloride action rates in the traditional downstream changed month-on-month respectively +4.57%, -3.59%, -5.05% and -4.55%.
Yesterday, the main methanol contract continued to rebound and rise, closing at 2,727 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.15%; the Taicang base closed at 63 points, up 4 points from the previous value. At the macro level, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 basis points yesterday morning, which was in line with market expectations. All commodities were negative in the short term, and they all led to a specific increase yesterday.
In addition, methanol cost support is still strong at the moment Wind data shows that Tianjin Port yesterdaythermal coalThe closing price is 1292 yuan / ton, which has been rising for 35 consecutive days.
In the spot market, yesterday, Henan, East China and South China rose 10-35 yuan / ton The drop in production in Iran has led to a drop in import expectations. The superimposed spot is on getting in port areas is still tight, and the methanol basis continues to rise.
From a fundamental point of view, starting from mid to late September, the restart plan of methanol plants in the north west has been relatively brief. This week, the supply side has led to a significant increase, and the weekly average capacity utilization rate. increased by 1.13% month on month.
On the demand side, the execution rate of traditional demand has varied this week. Before the winter environmental protection inspection comes, there is still a strong expectation of improvement in the traditional downstream of methanol. In addition, with the advent of the National Day holiday, some MTO manufacturers have replenishment needs, and the overall performance of methanol demand is expected to improve in the short term.
In terms of inventory, there was a decrease of 99,100 tonnes in the port’s inventory this week compared to the previous month, and affected by the coastal typhoon, the unloading of some cargoes was superimposed and the sailing speed slowed down.
Generally:At this time, sales in most mainland markets are good, and manufacturers are ideal for going into the warehouse. At the moment, coal prices are still strong and with a recovery seasonal methanol terminal demand, but the centralized restart of methanol plants in the north-west region since mid-to-late September may bring a certain negative impact. It is expected that the domestic methanol The market will maintain a range-bound pattern in the near future.Changes in coal prices.
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