This week’s trading notes: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will testify in the Senate and House of Representatives on Wednesday and Thursday (22-23); the U.S. Markit Manufacturing and Services PMIs for June will be released on Thursday , observe the data changes to see whether the U.S. economic growth is true or false; after the central banks of the United States and other countries announced their decisions last week, the central banks of the Philippines, Indonesia, Norway, Turkey, and Mexico took over to announce their decisions this week.
This week’s trading notes (0620-0624)
1. Fed Chairman Powell to testify in Senate and House of Representatives
Last week, the Fed’s semi-annual monetary policy report mentioned that the Fed will take all necessary measures to control inflation, reiterated the need to stabilize prices to support a strong labor market, and emphasized that the commitment to curb inflation is “unconditional” (unconditional) for the Fed. The toughest wording yet.
Some analysts pointed out that the wording of “unconditional” indicates that nothing, including a possible rise in unemployment, will hinder its determination and action against inflation, and it also implies that the Fed is willing to take such risks to avoid a worse situation. , that inflation is completely out of control and causing more devastating long-term damage.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool (CME FedWatch Tool), the market expects the Fed to raise interest rates by 3 yards (75 basis points) in July meeting to 85%, and the probability of 2 yards (50 basis points) in September meeting. more than 50%. Several Fed officials will also speak out this week.
In addition, the final value of the U.S. June Michigan consumer confidence index will be released this Friday (24th), after the initial value of the index fell to a record low, indicating that consumers are uneasy about hot inflation, if the final value this week Confirmed, and even worse, means the Fed will not falter in the pace of rate hikes in the coming months.
2. U.S. June Markit manufacturing, services PMI, initial jobless claims
The United States will release a series of economic data related to the manufacturing and service industries on Thursday. The market estimates that the Markit Manufacturing PMI in June was 56.4, which was lower than the previous value of 57. The initial value of the Markit Services PMI in June was 53.6, slightly higher than the previous value. The value is 53.4. By observing the changes in the data, we can see whether the US economic growth is real or not.
On the same day, the number of Americans receiving unemployment benefits last week will also be announced. The market estimates that the number of people will drop slightly to 225,000, which is lower than the unrevised value of 22.9.
3. Multinational central bank decision-making takes over
Following the monetary policy decisions announced by the central banks of the United States, Taiwan, the United Kingdom, and Japan last week, the central banks of the Philippines, Indonesia, Norway, Turkey, and Mexico will take over this week. In the face of the new crown epidemic and the Russian-Ukrainian war, the market will focus on these countries. Monetary policy, assessing its impact on the global economic environment.