Important international financial events this week include: US non-farm employment in November, core personal consumption expenditure (Core PCE) price index, third quarter GDP review and ISM manufacturing index and other important economic reports, as well as zonal consumption the euro Consumer Price Index (CPI), Japanese and South Korean industrial production, and the official Manufacturing PMI / Caixin China.
In addition, the Federal Reserve (Fed) will release the Beige Book (Beige Book) on Thursday (1st), explaining US economic activities and companies’ views on the outlook. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is also scheduled to speak.
This week’s trading notes (1128-1202)
1. Economic data such as US non-farm payrolls and core SNP
November US non-agricultural data will be released on Friday (2nd) Taiwan time. This is the last non-agricultural report before the Fed’s last interest rate meeting this year. Following last month’s 261,000 new additions, the market is expected to add 200,000 people this month, the second month in a row of slowing, but still growing steadily, and the unemployment rate is expected to be flat at 3.7%, just above the 50 year low point.
Changes in average hourly earnings are also under the spotlight as the market becomes increasingly sensitive to inflation. After peaking at 5.6% in March, annual growth in US average hourly earnings fell to 4.7% in October and is expected to slow further to 4.6% this month.
Important US economic data for the coming week include September’s house price index, Q3 GDP revision, November’s ISM manufacturing index, October JOLT vacancies, last week’s unemployment data, and the core PCE price index the Fed expects it most. core PCE growth to fall slightly in October.
2. Speeches from Fed Chairman Powell and several FOMC voters
Since the Fed held an interest rate meeting earlier this month, a series of economic data has partly eased investors’ worries about inflation. The minutes of last week’s meeting also strengthened the expectation that the central bank will slow the pace of hikes. interest rate in However, many officials are still repeating the policy that the interest rate will be higher than originally predicted.
Market attention is focused on New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams (John Williams), St Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard (James Bullard) speaking this week 30 Speeches on the economic outlook of the United States and the labor market.
Strategists at TD Securities expect Williams and Powell to make it clear that the rate hike cycle will last longer as the labor market remains tight and service sector inflation remains high.
3. Eurozone CPI
Key Eurozone CPI data will be released on Wednesday, with economists expecting inflation to edge down in November, the first slowdown this year, but remain above 10% for two consecutive months. The median forecast for the annual CPI growth rate in the Eurozone in November was 10.4%, slightly below the previous value of 10.6%.
Germany, France, Italy and Spain, the four main economies in the euro zone, will also release individual inflation data. With the exception of Spain, inflation growth in the remaining three countries is expected to slow.
The President of the European Central Bank (ECB) Christine Lagarde (Christine Lagarde) will go to the European Parliament to testify on Monday Any opinion she has on euro zone inflation and economic prospects will be watched by investors. The ECB’s Chief Economist, Philip Lane, is also expected to speak on Thursday.
4. Asian industrial production and manufacturing data
Industrial production data from Japan and South Korea will be released on Wednesday (30th), and the market will pay close attention to the impact of the slowdown in global economic growth on Asia’s two advanced industrial exporters. South Korea’s export data and also released on Thursday revealing the impact of global demand, health status.
On the other hand, the market expects a small drop in November Caixin and official manufacturing PMI this week as the revival of the epidemic forced local authorities in China to tighten epidemic prevention restrictions again, hurting local economic activity.