Important international financial events this week cover a number of important economic data, including the US March non-farm payrolls, the March ISM manufacturing index, the February core personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE) and the final US Q4 gross domestic product (GDP) value , Under the high inflation, the core PCE price index has received much attention. In addition, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other oil-producing countries (OPEC+) will also hold a ministerial meeting.
This week’s trading notes (03/28-0401)
1. US March non-agricultural, February core PCE:
The United States will release the latest non-farm payroll report on Friday (1st). The market expects that non-farm payrolls will increase by 450,000 in March, and the unemployment rate is estimated to fall further to 3.7%. (Fed) lays the groundwork for a path to tightening monetary policy.
Market analysis believes that employment data is important in terms of the economic path, but the current inflation data is more meaningful. While achieving full employment, the Fed will mostly focus on combating inflation.
The United States will release a highly concerned inflation indicator on Thursday (31st). Economists widely expect the core PCE price index to rise 5.5% in February from a year earlier, up from 5.2% in February.
2. US March ISM manufacturing index:
The Institute of Supplier Management (ISM) will release its manufacturing index on Friday (1st), and the market expects that the U.S. manufacturing index in March will reach 58.3, down from 58.6 in February, but the gap is not large.
3. OPEC+ ministerial meeting:
Tensions between Russia and Ukraine come as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers (OPEC+) meet at ministerial level on Thursday to discuss crude output quotas. Due to the tight market supply, OPEC+ has still insisted on the 400,000 barrels per day production increase agreement, and investors will continue to pay attention to the impact of this resolution on the trend of oil prices.
Eric Chenoweth, an analyst at Scout Investments, believes that OPEC+ will basically run out of spare capacity by the end of this year, so he does not expect much change in OPEC+’s production increase plan at this meeting.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) previously said it would take four to eight weeks for the extra supply of crude to reach consumer markets even if OPEC+ scales up its existing planned output increase.
