This winter’s ‘Twindemic’ warning sound… Pfizer is also developing an influenza mRNA vaccine

(Seoul = Yonhap News) Reporter Kim Ji-yeon = Concerns about the ‘twindemic’, in which the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19) and influenza (flu) are prevalent at the same time this winter, are raising their heads again.

The British weekly The Economist reported in the latest issue that these concerns did not materialize as there was no flu epidemic last winter, but rather raised concerns that this year’s flu season could be worse.

Seasonal influenza is caused by a group of viruses that circulate in humans, mammals, and birds and circulate around the world, beginning in October and May in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, respectively.

Influenza vaccines have to be updated every year due to mutations and spread, and as it takes at least six months to develop and produce, the World Health Organization (WHO) collects data through networks around the world to predict the virus that will be prevalent in the coming season. , to make recommendations to experts in September.

In February of this year, experts used money virus information from the southern hemisphere to select four viruses that are expected to spread in the northern hemisphere.

But this year’s flu season in the northern hemisphere, which begins next month, is fraught with uncertainty.

The effectiveness of vaccine prevention depends on how well it predicts the virus species that will spread, but it is unknown whether the prediction of this year’s epidemic will be correct because data was scarce due to the disappearance of last year’s flu season due to wearing a mask and social distancing.

From September last year to January this year, the global flu test positive rate was less than 0.2%. This is very low compared to 17% in 2017-2020.

The flu vaccine is less effective than the COVID-19 vaccine. It is said that 70% of healthy adults and 50% of the elderly are effective.

The British Academy of Medicine (AMS) predicts that the flu vaccine will be hit this year due to the lack of information on the types of viruses circulating this year.

Also, the disappearance of the 2020-2021 flu season is expected to prevent people from developing their natural immunity to the flu virus, and a flu outbreak in such an environment could be problematic, AMS warned.

A study published in 2013 found that 72% of epidemics after a winter, when flu transmission rates were lower than usual, started 11 days earlier than average and were more severe.

AMS modeling also found that returning to pre-pandemic life could lead to a winter flu that’s 2.2 times more deadly than usual.