Amid the dire economic crisis, Erdoğan is fighting for power. It will be tight for him in the elections in Turkey, the president is counted.
The most important things at a glance
For many years he was considered the reason why people in Turkey were better off economically – but those times are over. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is grappling with an economic crisis that he has largely brought on himself. The consequences of his economic policy: they are devastating.
The national currency, the lira, has been falling for years, and independent institutes estimate inflation in the country at 140 percent. Going to the supermarket has become a nightmare for many Turks. Food is becoming more and more expensive, retailers can hardly keep up with changing the prices, those who can afford it buy food in advance.
Despite this fundamental crisis, Erdoğan has not resigned, he is still firmly in the saddle. At least so far. Because in the presidential election in May he could get the pay for his political mistakes. Never before in Erdoğan’s term in office has a united opposition had such a good chance of a change of power. At the same time, the President is fighting with unfair means. He knows: It is his end game for power – and that can be a serious threat to Turkey.
The election campaign: Erdoğan fills football stadiums
In his political career, Erdoğan has always been able to rely on one thing: he is a good election campaigner. Despite his country’s economic problems, the president is still able to fill stadiums and squares with his supporters.
As so often, Erdoğan stood in front of a sea of flags at his events in January, and thousands of people cheered him on. The 68-year-old railed against the opposition, against the Kurdish terrorist organization PKK, against an allegedly Islamophobic West – until he almost lost his voice.
According to Erdoğan, foreign powers who want to keep Turkey small are to blame for the economic dilemma. Recognized economists see it differently. According to them, the main cause of the currency collapse is the low interest rate policy, which the President pushed through with all his might against the advice of most experts. And the Turkish government is also to blame, which financed the rapid economic growth on credit and is therefore highly dependent on foreign exchange.
Either way: Turkey’s economic development has been decisive for the majority of the population in the past few years. Accordingly, the self-inflicted economic crisis is also the biggest opponent for the president in this election. Because now the prosperity of many Turks is seriously threatened, and this attacks the narrative of Erdoğan, who always presented himself as an economic genius.
Nevertheless: Erdoğan is still in the running. The decisive factor in the election will be how much the tools he has built up and used over the past few years to expand and maintain his power can help him through this crisis. His political strength is based on the following points:
