Original title: Three-child birth policy is coming, baby concept stocks soar
The Politburo of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on May 31. The meeting pointed out that the childbirth policy will be further optimized, and a couple can have three children policy and supporting measures.
Affected by the news, Gaole shares and Yihua Health have straightened up the sealing board, and stocks such as Beinmate, David Medical and Baby-friendly Room have risen sharply. What medium- and long-term impact will the three-child policy have on the stock market, food, real estate, travel and other sectors? The reporter conducted an interview to understand this.
By Tu Duanyu and Zhang Lu, all media reporters of Guangzhou Daily
Assisted reproduction welcomes benefits, “just need” milk powder looks forward to expansion
Stimulated by heavy weight gains, A-share related concept stocks rose sharply in late trading. Gaole shares, Gold Rabbi’s daily limit closed, Beinmate, David Medical, Baby Room, Kangzhi Pharmaceutical, etc. have pulled up sharply. The three-child concept stocks in Hong Kong stocks rose collectively yesterday. As of the close, Jinxin Fertility rose 17.51% to close at 22.350 Hong Kong dollars; Beikang Medical rose 15.10% to close at 28.200 Hong Kong dollars.
Chen Mengjie, chief strategy analyst at Yuekai Securities, analyzed that with the increase in the number of newborns, the demand for the second type of vaccination closely related to children is expected to grow rapidly. At the same time, as consumption upgrades continue to deepen, parents will be more pursuing high-quality products, Pay more attention to early training, so related sub-sectors such as infant food, toys, and early education are expected to continue to benefit.
From the perspective of the industry, the fertility policy will accelerate the development of my country’s assisted reproductive industry. According to data from the official website of the National Health Commission, by the beginning of 2020, there are 517 medical institutions approved to carry out human assisted reproductive technology, and 27 medical institutions have been approved to set up human sperm banks. It is understood that most of the assisted reproductive centers that have been approved to provide related services are located in more developed first- and second-tier cities, and the services and drugs involved in assisted reproductive technology are not included in the scope of medical insurance reimbursement, which are purely self-financed items. “Considering the technical difficulty of assisted reproductive technology, a large number of patients may still be concentrated in large hospitals or high-end assisted reproductive centers in big cities in the future. If older couples pursue their third child, they will maximize the success rate of assisted reproduction. “Some industry observers think so.
What will be the benefit of the infant formula industry, which is “just needed” by newborns? Although Beinmate hit the daily limit yesterday and the share price of the baby-friendly room rose, in the eyes of dairy industry experts, the benefits that are “visible to the naked eye” may not appear in the short term. “The three-child policy will not stimulate the infant milk powder industry very much in the short term.” Song Liang, a dairy industry expert, told the Guangzhou Daily All-Media reporter: Infant formula milk powder will still be in an environment of “stock competition” and will not It has become “incremental competition” because of the three-child policy.
In the opinion of food industry analyst Zhu Danpeng, this policy has brought basic dividends to families who want to have three children and many industries, depending on the support policies that will be implemented in various provinces and cities. “From the overall fundamentals, of course, it is good for the maternal and child and children’s food industry, but this will not necessarily lead to a significant increase in the scale of the industry within this year and next year.” He believes.
Both housing and travel needs may change
The three-child policy inevitably involves the issue of housing improvement. “This is obviously good for some housing companies that focus on large units.” Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of E-House Research Institute, said in an interview with reporters from Guangzhou Daily. In the past, the housing sector emphasized the “70/90” policy, namely The 90-square-meter apartment needs to account for 70% of the residential real estate, but if the family has three children, this apartment is obviously too small. Judging from the current situation, the 120-square-meter residential area may still not be able to meet the needs of three-child families, because housing not only simply solves the problem of children’s living, but also increases the number of functional rooms. Therefore, it is expected that the traditional pattern of “small units under 90 square meters, medium units of 90 to 144 square meters, and large units over 144 square meters” will change.
The introduction of the three-child policy may change the travel needs of many families. In the past, a family of three with a car was enough to meet travel requirements. Now, three-child families may face more travel and luggage storage needs. Therefore, small cars may not be able to meet their needs.
“The policy is a major benefit to the auto market and is conducive to the growth of the 7-seater car market.” Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the China Travel Association, said in a statement that the Chinese auto market is dominated by middle-aged consumer groups, and it will gradually move towards elderly consumption. The introduction of the three-child policy will promote more diversified auto market demand. But he also said that although the three-child policy will increase sales of seven-seater cars, its strength is still small in terms of the structure of the entire auto market, and the auto market is bound to be geared towards middle-aged and senior citizens.
Wang Jun, Associate Professor, School of Sociology and Anthropology, Sun Yat-Sen University: Good cultivation is the key
The three-child policy is a very important step in the process of optimizing my country’s population policy.
In my opinion, relevant supporting policies are very important, and good breeding is the key. This requires the government, society, and individuals to form a joint effort to consider marriage, childbirth, parenting, and education. For example, improve the service level of prenatal and postnatal care, develop a universal childcare service system, promote education equity and the supply of high-quality education resources, and reduce family education expenditures, thereby achieving the goal of improving the age structure of the population and increasing the overall vitality of society.