Wall Street is starting to write a reflection letter. Stocks, bonds, gold, and bitcoin. There is no alternative. TINA
Changed from “buy anything” to “sell everything”. Investment banking experts with annual salaries of hundreds of millions to billions of dollars also pointed to the wrong leg. At the end of last year, in March and in June, the average of the S&P 500 forecasts continued to decline. We are busy following the market rather than looking ahead.
Average Wall Street analysts’ S&P 500 forecast. As the market declines, forecasts continue to decline. Source = Bloomberg
The Russia-Ukraine War, the highest inflation in 40 years, and the incompetence of the Fed, which it believed in. At the end of it was Tina.
“All I can do now is put a bunch of cash under the mattress. Or gold or U.S. Treasury bonds. But these also fall in price.”
Max Ketner, chief multi-asset strategist at HSBC Global Research, said in an interview with Bloomberg that “just like last year I was dazzled by the phrase ‘inflation is temporary’, and now I’m swayed by the phrase ‘inflation is high’.”
“Inflation is not temporary, nor has it peaked. It’s like, ‘The last few days have been very difficult. It’s like saying ‘Now it’s over’.”
Here are some reflections from Wall Street analysts:
# TD Ameritrate Chief Strategist Shuan Cruz
I thought prices were stable. The Ukrainian war also saw Russia stop in the Donbas region. ‘it’s okay. I think we should impose sanctions.”
I couldn’t let go of the idea that the price increase was temporary. It was not expected that the war would have such a serious impact on prices.
# Kestra Holdings CIO Kara Murphy
It has been on the decline since the beginning of the year. Because the Fed will hit the brakes. The market also fluctuated. I thought it was a normal business cycle. In retrospect, it was too fast.
It wasn’t just that I was surprised. Everything changed quickly. Until the Ukrainian War. The picture became more complex.
# DA Davidson Walt’s Management Research Director James Logan
Inflation surprised us all. I didn’t expect it at all.
It has an impact on consumer spending and consumer sentiment. The risk of an economic slowdown has increased. All of this has really changed.
# Wells Fargo Securities Equity Strategist Anna Han
I was surprised to see the company’s performance in the first quarter. The profit margins of large corporations were good. Even talking about supply chain issues, the margins were good.
In the second quarter, we saw that prices were not peaking. The first quarter results were a thing of the past. More and more negative things began to penetrate.
The mind has changed, the Fed has changed. All of this hit us.
# Bokeh Capital Partners CIO Kim Prest
I went to a restaurant for lunch without a reservation. The seat was empty. But wait 45 minutes. Because there was a shortage of employees.
We haven’t gone back to 2019 yet. The supply chain bottleneck is a serious shortage of manpower. A lot depends on how China comes out.
# State Street Global Advisor Chief Economist Simona Mokyuta
We have to accept that austerity is coming stronger than we thought at the beginning of the year. The war threw a stagflation shockwave.
As we did a few months ago, we are finding no way out of the aftermath of the war.
Inflation is high and interest rates are rising. Economic growth prospects are down once again.
# TIAA Bank World Market CEO Chris Gafney
You’d be in a better position if you sold everything and cashed out at the beginning of the year. But trying to time the market is always a fool’s game.
Stay invested. This is especially true if you are investing with a long-term outlook.
You can work hard for the rest of the time to make up for your losses here. But it’s hard. There is a lot of volatility.
When an external shock hits the market, we just have to wait. Adjusting only what you have control over.
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