Original title:[One week strategy of top ten brokers]A-shares will usher in a more obvious wave of incremental funds!The slow rising period of rotation enters the second half, pay attention to these varieties
[Top Ten Brokerage Strategies: A-shares will usher in more obvious incremental funds! Rotational slow-rising period enters the second half]CITIC Securities: The first phase of the “slow-rising trilogy”, the “rotational slow-rising period” will enter the second half in January, and local speculative groups will collapse. It is recommended to closely follow the “pro-cyclical” period. And the two main lines of “five major safety”, switch to cost-effective varieties. (Broker China)
CITIC Securities: Rotational slow-rising period enters the second half, moving to cost-effective varieties
The first phase of the “trilogy” of slow growth, the “rotational slow rise period” will enter the second half in January, and local speculative groups will collapse. It is recommended to closely follow the two main lines of “pro-cyclical” and “five major security” and move to the high Cost-effective variety.
First of all, the external environment at the beginning of the year is generally favorable to A shares. The China-EU investment agreement has been implemented, clarifying the prospects for long-term cooperation, and the Sino-US game is in a vacuum. The epidemic situation in Europe and the United States is severe, the vaccination progress is slow, the policy reliance is high, and the expectation of loose policies will be strengthened. Second, the domestic fundamentals continued to improve in the first quarter.PerformanceThe year-on-year growth rate is flexible, and the industrial and consumer sectors have a significant role in stimulating.Third, internal and external macro liquidity is still loose, A-share market liquidity is more abundant, public offeringfundNew hair and foreign investmentNet inflowStill continues. Finally, the local speculative group will collapse, and the performance forecast will drive the differentiation of the group. Among them, the speculative grouping of second- and third-line products whose valuation and fundamentals are misaligned tends to collapse, while the first-line core assets will continue to benefit from new fund issuance and foreign capital inflows. The overseas environment is better, the fundamentals are highly flexible, and liquidity is expected to improve. There is still room for upside in the A-share market in January.
In terms of configuration, it is recommended to switch to cost-effective varieties, including the following two main lines.On the one hand, the “pro-cyclical” main line is booming, and relatively stagnant varieties are worth paying attention to, includingNon-ferrous metals, Household appliances, home appliances, tourism, hotels, etc. On the other hand, continue to focus on the “five major security” strategies of science and technology, national defense, food, energy, and resources, and deploy cost-effective varieties with clear long-term logic and long-term strategic space, including military industry, semiconductors, consumer electronics, planting chains and seeds.
Huatai Securities: Spring market may fall
Last week Dow Jones,Nasdaq， A crotchThe Shanghai Composite Index、Shenzhen Component Index、Growth Enterprise Market IndexBoth numbers have reached a new high in 2020. Three factors are expected to boost the A-share market in the spring: First, the overseas epidemic continues to delay the market’s expectations for the exit of loose policies; Second, the Christmas calendar effect boosts overseas equity assets and boosts A-shares Risk appetite; third, after the end of the appraisal period for domestic institutions, they will begin to actively deploy for the coming year. From the structural point of view, the differentiation is further intensified. On the one hand,SSE 50、CSI 300The leading indexes such as, GEM 50, etc. have continued to set new highs during the year; on the other hand, the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes still have 8-12% room from their July highs. Measured by the above 50 (PE-TTM) / CSI 500, it is currently at the 70% quantile level since 2010, and is in a state of high differentiation.
The short-term spring market turmoil may be approaching, and it is recommended to pay attention to TMT: First, the catalysis of events such as the Communications Operators Conference in January, and market attention is expected to increase; second, during the spring turmoil, liquidity is loose and the term spread is widening. Stock valuations are depressed, and TMT’s winning rate is relatively high; third, the annual report/quarterly report is expected to be good, and the sector adjustment is relatively sufficient, and the price/performance ratio is prominent.In addition, continue to pay attention to new energyindustryIt is recommended to pay attention to nuclear power and electrical equipment that benefit from carbon neutrality; continue to pay attention to the export chain, vaccine news, and central economic workmeetingRelated opportunities brought about by the focus of work in 2021, such as home appliances, auto parts, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, military industry, etc. The medium-term main line continues to recommend the allocation of bulk and manufacturing that benefit from global re-inflation and the rebound in manufacturing investment cycles.
Haitong Securities: The spring market has begun, focusing on underestimating the stagflation of big finance
①In addition to time, the bull market cycle also depends on space. Compared with the historical period, this round of bull market has a low growth rate and a slower pace, which is expected to break the “Bulls but Three”. ② In the past, the end of the bull market was signaled by earnings or peak sentiment. It is expected that ROE will rebound to 21Q4 in this round. The current market sentiment is only 60 degrees, and the bull market is still on its way. ③The spring market has begun, and the short-term emphasis is on underestimating the stagnant big finance. The main line of the year is still the technology and domestic demand representing transformation and upgrading.
Guotai JunanSecurities: It is possible to break through 3500, but it is still a shock
The ending week of 2020 will hit the upper edge, and it is possible to break through 3,500, but it will still maintain a shock pattern for some time to come. The weekly reports released by the Monarch Strategy in the past three weeks have all carried out the view that “adjustment is a good opportunity for layout”, and the trend of spring turmoil is irreversible. During the week, various indexes closed in 2020 with new highs during the year, driven by two positive lines. “Shanghai is stronger and Shenzhen is stronger” among the sectors is just a sign. CSI 800 is superior to CSI 1000, indicating that risk appetite is only a disturbance , Trading recovery is still the core of the market. The divergence of the market lies in the judgment of the pace of recovery or after the recovery,Guotai JunanSecurities believes that the logic of the current recovery is still possible to maintain liquidity in 2021Q1 and the overseas replenishment of inventory is for the mid-rangepriceBefore the Chinese New Year, the market’s upward momentum was sufficient to break by 3,500 points, but the micro-upgrading of other risk appetite centers could not keep the index away from the chip-packed area for a long time, and it is more likely that there will be a tangled trend of “slowly twisting and picking”. Therefore, it is still judged that the market outlook will maintain a shock pattern, and the upper limit of 3,500 points will not be revised upwards.
CICC: Policy is gradually turning, focusing on structure at the beginning of the year
In the market at the beginning of the year, the performance of the sector may be affected by multiple factors such as “beginning of the year effect”, fundamentals, and valuation, and may be relatively volatile. However, on the whole, we have noticed that China’s high growth has fluctuated, the epidemic has been partially repeated but the overall situation is controllable, overseas epidemics are still being deduced, vaccines are also rapidly landing, Chinese policies continue to show a gradual turning trend, and market valuations are in history The interval average is relatively high, and the Chinese market needs to pay attention to its structure amidst fluctuations.
Recently, it is recommended to focus on the following areas: 1) New energy and new energy vehiclesIndustry chainThe performance in 2020 is good, and the stock price may fluctuate at the beginning of the year. We will continue to focus on high-prosperity areas in the middle and upper reaches of the bargaining period; 2) Technology and industrial autonomy, focusing on technology and hardware bottom-up and bargain-hunting opportunities; 3) Consumption in 2021 May continue to recover on a low base in the year, and is still the focus of bottom-up stock selection, including home appliances, automobiles and parts, home furnishings, hotels, other optional consumption,food and drink, Pharmaceuticals, etc.; 4) In cyclical industries, pay attention to some metal raw materials and crude oil industry chains that may continue to improve and whose valuations are not high.
China Merchants Securities: A-shares will usher in a more obvious wave of incremental funds
Entering January 2021,China Merchants SecuritiesIt is expected that the market will continue to maintain an upward trend, the Shanghai Composite Index will continue to rise, and the Shanghai 50 Index will continue to record highs. The main reason is that the first quarter of 2021 will usher in the highest performance growth rate in the past 10 years, and the first quarterly report is expected; the central bank will continue to invest heavily in liquidity in December; at the beginning of the year, due to the obvious effect of making money,Northward capitalAt the beginning of the year, there will be more A shares, and A shares will usher in a more obvious wave of incremental funds. Historically, in a year of high growth, it is easier for investors to choose reverse thinking in January. Industries that performed poorly the year before last year may counterattack and market styles may change.
Industrial Securities: Greet 3500 points, grow bright sword
At the beginning of the new year, macro liquidity has improved significantly compared with the previous period, and the liquidity of the stock market continues to be optimistic in the context of the “quartet” of the equity era. Traditionally, the market economy data window period in January and February, the “14th Five-Year Plan” and the “two sessions” held in various places and other policies intensively fall, market liquidity and risk appetite have improved significantly compared with the previous period. The fundamentals of the domestic economy have continued to recover, with full resilience, manufacturing investment,SMEs,industryenterpriseHigh-frequency data such as profits also support the continued recovery of corporate profits. On the whole, driven by multiple positives, it is optimistic that the recovery market will continue to interpret, and the index is expected to break through 3,500 points.
From the perspective of industry allocation, blue chip establishment and growth performance are the better asset allocation portfolio directions in January, and the growth phase is expected to become the main direction of market funds.1) From the perspective of market sentiment, liquidity, policy catalysis, and fundamental improvement, the growth direction is expected to become the main direction of the market. Such as military industry (aviation, aerospace), machinery, new energy vehicle chains, etc. Secondly, in the direction of computer (cloud), communication (optical module), games, etc., the economy is improving. 2) The fundamentals continue to improve, and the short-term increase may be large, reflecting expectations, but from the medium-term perspective, the overall trend of cyclical recovery + service industry improvement remains unchanged. Can focus on: chemical industry (large refining, MDI, pesticide, titanium dioxide, glass fiber), non-ferrous metals (industrial metal), service industry (performance, hotel, tax-free, aviation and shipping, finance).
GF Securities: Welcome to the “third wave” procyclical market
In December 2020, the procyclical market “ebbs” in stages, butGF SecuritiesIt is believed that there is still a “third wave” in the procyclical market (the second paragraph of the “retaliatory consumption” market). The current procyclical period is still in the early stage of economic expansion, and the implementation of vaccines will significantly restore the pro-cyclical (especially optional consumption) industry boom. Recommended configuration: 1. Optional consumption (auto parts, home appliances, leisure services) that continue to recover from the economy and benefit from demand-side management; 2. Manufacturing industries (industrial metals, glass, general machinery) where price increases coincide with the start of the production capacity/inventory cycle and emerging industries (new energy) that benefit from the upward trend/substitution effect; 3. Underestimation, undervaluation, under-balanced, confirmed by the inflection point of the economy (bank、Insurance). The thematic investment focuses on the reform of state-owned enterprises (Shanghai and Shenzhen state-owned assets regional experiment).
New Era Securities: There will be incremental capital market in the first quarter
In the next quarter, it may enter the market driven by incremental funds again. Since mid-July 2020, the long and short forces of the stock market have been very balanced. The main buying force is newly issued public and private equity funds, and the main selling force is large.shareholderShareholding reduction, IPO and refinancing, and some unbearable shocksTransactional investmentBy. The new era believes that after the shock, the market is about to usher in new incremental funds, and the probability of the index breaking upward greatly increases. During the shock period, the main force to maintain the market’s heat is the economy exceeding expectations. This force may have to wait for the annual report to be disclosed nearby. The main driving force of the short-term market will gradually become incremental funds, and the market may have a general rise.
New Era Securities predicts that in the next quarter, it may usher in incremental funds again. The main reasons are: (1) Incremental funds are most likely to occur in the first quarter. Even in shock and bear markets, there will be a short-term net inflow of funds in the first quarter; (2) Residents’ recognition of the stock market has continued to increase, and since mid-July The shock did not change this trend. Instead, it gave residents a long rest period for funds; (3) In a larger bull market, the rest period for residents’ funds entering the market will not exceed half a year; (4)currencyPolicy forecasts have stabilized again in the near futureinterest rateStart going down.
Yuekai Securities: Spring market is worth looking forward to
Yuekai Securities has calculated the probability and growth rate of the first-tier industries of Shenwan in the week after New Year’s Day and January from 2015 to 2019Median, It was found that the rising probability and median of the increase in general, electrical equipment, steel, machinery, electronics, and media in the week after New Year’s Day were relatively high; throughout January, historically, the rising probability of delivery, military industry, and home appliances was relatively high. In the configuration direction, the three main lines of pro-cyclical, new energy, and advanced manufacturing are balanced.
(Editor in charge: DF512)
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