Trump's fight with asylum cities is part of his rural strategy

In 2016, Trump lost the largest city counties with a margin of more than one Republican presidential candidate today. In 2018, House Republicans were placed in suburban areas not only in urban areas which were experiencing a trend towards Democracy – such as Denver suburbs, Philadelphia, Seattle and northern Virginia – but also in places that were still towards the GOP, Atlanta included, Dallas, Houston, Richmond and even Oklahoma City.

But rather than looking to rebuild bridges with the growing population centers, Trump seems to use them as a foil to energize its largely non-urban base.

"He wants to demonstrate cities as an alien to the two-car garage in Naperville," said Chicago Mayor, Rahm Emanuel who was outgoing, in an interview, referring to the western suburb of his city. "They want to scare more to make the soccer mom."

Trump 's public models were welcomed by the great mayors of the city in relation to the despair of immigrants. "America was a refuge country before Chicago was an asylum city," Emanuel told me. "Send them: we will welcome them, and we will enroll their children in our schools."

Mayor Seattle Jenny Durkan wrote the same in Washington Post last weekend: "So if this president is trying to send immigrants and refugees to Seattle and other reception cities, let me be clear: We will do what we have always done, and we will be stronger for him. "

It is unclear whether Trump has the legal authority to relocate undocumented immigrants and asylum seekers to cities as he recommended.

But even the threat extends its real disease relationship with the country's urban centers. The irony is that Trump itself is a product of urban politics, famous real estate and tabloid culture in New York City – it is not a much less rural suburban environment.

There are cost cities at Trump policies

Trump has already sought to withhold certain federal law enforcement funding for so-called asylum cities that do not fully co-operate with federal law enforcement officers on immigration matters, although these cities have been successful in preventing these threats in the courts.
The tax bill allowed the GOP Conference in 2017 to cut rates for taxpayers in all medium-sized communities, but it did cost residents of the city by limiting federal deductions to state and local taxes and high-cost mortgages. Taxpayers claiming these deductions are generally more concentrated in urban areas with housing costs, and higher property taxes: all ten counties, for example, where taxpayers have taken the highest average taxes for state and local taxes. 2016 is located in the urban areas of New York City and San Francisco, according to the Conservative Tax Institute.
The following; s who won # about Trump tax law;
The federal budget showed that Trump in March issued a more prominent tilt towards rural areas in urban areas. Trump proposed major cuts to gross transit and Amtrak, which mainly serve cities, as well as increases in funding for rural infrastructure projects. It also recommended major cuts in federal housing programs that benefit the cities and the elimination of the Community Development Block Grant, which supports housing and economic development programs.

The cities now have a time of indifference – unlike hostility – from the federal government, City Mayor of New York Bill Bill of Taste told me earlier this month when I interviewed him at an Atlantic event.

"Affordable federal housing policy does not exist again," he said at the time. "There is no federal policy to address income imbalances; there is no federal early childhood education policy; federal housing policy is not affordable."

Moving the GOP from the country's club to the country;

Trump has promoted these policy proposals with frequent rhetoric attacks in which he demonstrated capitals – particularly Chicago – as crime and chaotic. "Its goal is to drive a wedge between suburban and urban," charged by Emanuel. "He wants the cities to make alarming for the sub-urban voter heart."

Trump's trumpet relationship with the larger cities expands his central political strategy which focuses particularly on energizing his political base even at the expense of voter resistance outside. Demographically, this means that younger voters, from minorities and many white voters who are educated at the college, will be treated with great confidence in serving older, evangelical and blue collar people. Geographically, this means that large deficits in urban and suburban areas will be accepted at the cost of extending the GOP benefits in existing, small and rural communities.

The recession of the GOP in large urban areas and more dependence on small and rural towns voters before the start of Trump. But this change – the former Republican representative of Virginia Tom Davis mentions the GOP move "from the country's club to the country" – Trump obviously accelerated because Trump re-defined the party around their racist economic infiltration.

Money, power and data: Inside Trump & # 39; s re-election machine
During the 1980s presidential elections, Republican Ronald Reagan won about two-thirds of the top 100 counties in the country each time and George H.W. Bush made nearly three-fifths of them, according to calculations by Drew DeSilver, a senior writer at a non-partisan Pew Research Center. These numbers have fallen sharply for the GOP over the next 15 years but even recently and 2000 and 2004, George W. Bush made almost one third of the largest 100 counties in each of its two presidential member states. The Republican republic in America no longer exceeded Barack Obama, who won 88 of the 100 largest counties in 2008 and only 86 in 2012, according to DeSilver's calculations.

In 2016, Hillary Clinton made 87 comparable of the largest 100 counties against Trump, but expanded significantly on Obama's total voting margin in those places.

In 2012, the 100 largest county Obama made 11.6 million votes. This was a major increase from the Al Gore margin of 6.8 million votes over Bush in the top 100 counties of 2000.

But in 2016, Clinton won the top 100 counties with almost 14.7 million votes, more than a quarter more than Obama did. In places from Seattle (Kings County) and Los Angeles to Houston (Galway County), New York and Miami (Miami-Dade), Clinton won far more voting margins than Obama four years earlier. Clinton County Harris, for example, won about 162,000 votes after Obama has been less than 1,000. She won 110,000 more votes with Seattle than Obama did and LA had more than 360,000 more.

Clinton was badly injured due to small cuts to his margins in Philadelphia and Milwaukee, and more slip in Detroit, three major African-American cities where the black crowd fell compared to 2012. But overall, Trump was denied in the main places: 100 counties provided more than half of Clinton's total votes.

2018 was a turning point

The Republican recession in major urban areas accelerated the 2018 mid-term elections. Trump, as noted above, only won 13 of the 100 largest counties in 2016. Over half of this small group moved towards Democrats in key state situations. 2018.

In Arizona, the Democratic Senate candidate, Kyrsten Cinema in Maricopa County, won a win over Phoenix– the biggest county that Trump won two years earlier – as an integral part of his victory. In Texas, Beto O 'Rourke, candidate of the Democratic Seanad, Tarrant County (Fort Worth), voted the second largest Trump county in 2016. In New York, the Kirsten County Gillibrand County of Suffolk, third largest trump (though voters then supported Lee Zeldin Republican rep in the House). In Florida, the Democratic gubernatorial candidate Andrew Gillum won Pinellas County Florida (St Petersburg), the fourth largest Trump-winning county.

In the House last year, the Democrats consolidated their dominance in urban areas. According to the innovative system the CityLab website developed to classify house seating on a rural urban continuum, Democrats emerged from the 2018 election with 149 of the 165 seats in the three largest urban categories. Before the election, Republicans had 35 seats in the three largest urban groups. Republicans, CityLab, also suffered major losses in the "thin suburban" category of house seats that reflect the boundary between urban and small / rural towns.

The 2020 campaign is going to war on; elites & # 39 already;

The deflection side of the GOP city under Trump involves consolidation of its hold over smaller communities. In 2016, while Clinton won 87 of the top 100 counties, Trump won about 2,600 of the remaining 3,000 – the largest for any nominee in either Ronald Reagan party in 1984. In some important states, such as North Carolina. and Florida, it exceeded major deficiencies in urban areas with unprecedented margins and voter turnout in small towns and rural areas.

Even in 2018, the Democrats made little progress in the rural depots of the GOP: after the medium-sized, the GDP continues to lead the Democrats under 149-35 in the two most rural categories of house seats. And the Republican Senate chooses in Missouri, in North Dakota and in Indiana all mentioned on the strength of the growing town. Even in Texas, the rural areas in the Republican Republic in charge were able to overcome an amazing margin of 800,000 O Rourke votes in five main counties in the state. (Recently in 2012, Obama's only five counties were only marginally around 80,000 votes.)
Some Republican strategists – such as pollster Whit Ayres and Tom Davis Virginia, former chairman of the Republican National Conference Committee – have warned that the GOP is trading smaller areas that are staggering or losing population and economies in prioritizing areas. rural over metro clout for more places are going on in both sides. But the latest threats to Trump to relocate undocumented immigrants to large cities ignore these concerns.

Trump is holding an election on the 2020 election, and perhaps the future of the GOP for the following years, on a very different commitment: that the nation's largest city party has more to do than they are. liked them.


Leave a comment

Send a Comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.