The collapsed Kakhovka Dam will flood villages and towns in Ukraine in a few hours. But that probably won’t stop the major Ukrainian offensive.
It is an escalation with potentially catastrophic consequences: the Nova Kakhovka dam in the southern Ukrainian Oblast of Cherson ruptured. Drone footage Tuesday showed water rushing through what remains of the dam. With 18.2 billion cubic meters of water, it is one of the largest reservoirs in Europe, and numerous Ukrainian towns in the region are now at risk of being devastated by a tidal wave. It is a catastrophe for the people in the region.
The situation is still unclear, the consequences of the dam breach are not yet foreseeable. One thing is certain: Ukraine has suspected the Russian army of wanting to blow up the dam since the summer of 2022. Now, one day after the start of a Ukrainian offensive, the feared catastrophe occurs. An accident?
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In any case, suspicion in the West and in Ukraine falls on Russia. But the destruction of a dam and the flooding of the surrounding area would have little military impact on the war in Ukraine. Experts see it more as a panic reaction by Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin.
Trying to hinder the Ukrainian offensive?
The Ukrainian government accused Moscow of having blown up the dam. The head of the Ukrainian presidential office, Andriy Yermak, spoke of “the largest man-made catastrophe in the world in decades”. Nature and hundreds of thousands of people will suffer from the consequences over the next few years. “The world must recognize and respond to the consequences of Russian terror against Ukrainian civilians,” Yermak said on Twitter.
Military expert Carlo Masala also sees the culprit in Moscow: “Everything indicates that the Russians blew up the dam,” Masala told t-online. There were reports last year that the Russian army had mined the dam extensively. Then as now, the Kremlin troops were under pressure from a Ukrainian counter-offensive.
According to Masala, the Russian military leadership is pursuing a dual purpose with the blast: on the one hand, the humanitarian catastrophe that has been brought about is intended to create chaos in Ukraine. On the other hand, Russia is trying to hinder Ukraine’s counteroffensive. It is now “virtually impossible” for the Ukrainian army to carry out offensive operations on the section of the front near Cherson.
But such a maneuver cannot stop the Ukrainian offensive, according to the expert: There are numerous other points where Ukraine can now strike.
“It doesn’t make sense from a tactical point of view”
Russia therefore benefits only slightly from the destruction of the dam. “This is a devastation of the country without any military use,” says military and Russia expert Gustav Gressel t-online. “It’s murder and serves at most to devastate Ukrainian towns. A scorched-earth tactic.”
Since Sunday, attacks by the Ukrainian army on numerous front sectors in the east of the country have increased rapidly. On Monday, Ukraine confirmed “offensive actions” in some sectors of the front and territory gains near the destroyed city of Bakhmut in the east of the country. Previously, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in an interview with the Wall Street Journal: “We are ready for the counteroffensive.”
