US also says Russia could invade Ukraine with 100 battalions of 100,000 units
US intelligence officials share ‘Russia-Ukraine invasion scenario’ with Europe
Ukrainian intelligence officials have reported that Russia could invade Ukraine early next year.
“Russia has assembled more than 92,000 troops at the Ukrainian border and is preparing an attack to invade Ukraine at the end of January or early February next year,” said Kirillo Budanov, director of the Ukrainian Defense Intelligence Agency, the Military Times. “He said on the 21st (local time).
Budanov also released a map showing the likely route of the Russian invasion.
He predicted that Russia would launch an attack by artillery and armored forces on the eastern border of Ukraine and the Crimea, followed by a large-scale airborne operation.
It also predicted that amphibious troops would enter through the Black Sea from the south of Ukraine, and small-scale invasions would continue from the north, including Belarus.
He feared that an actual attack could result in more bloodshed than did the Russian occupation of Crimea in 2014.
Director Budanov predicted that if Russia does not change the regime in this way, military aggression will continue, adding that Russia is trying to replace the Ukrainian regime that is friendly to the West by raising military tensions as it is now, creating internal unrest in Ukraine.
“Russia is trying to make the situation increasingly dangerous and difficult, creating a situation in which the regime changes,” he said.
In this regard, Bloomberg News reported on the 21st that, citing two sources, the United States shared information on the scenario of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine with some NATO member states last week.
According to reports, the scenario involves Russia mobilizing 100 tactical battalions of about 100,000 men to advance into Ukraine through Russia, Crimea and Belarus.
Operating in harsh terrain and cold conditions, these units aimed to seize a wide range of territories and occupy them for a long period of time.
Sources said about half of these tactical battalions were already deployed for the invasion and would receive air support in the event of an invasion.
The information shared by the US also included US estimates that Russian President Vladimir Putin could weigh in on an invasion of Ukraine early next year when Russian troops regroup near the Ukrainian border.
According to Bloomberg, Russia has called in tens of thousands of reserve forces, unprecedented since Soviet times, and the role of the reserve forces is to secure the territory by sending tactical battalions into the invaded areas, citing sources.
However, Russia has not officially announced the call to reserve forces.
Following reports of a growing possibility of a Russian invasion of Ukraine, Russia criticized the United States.
Russian President Dmitry Peskov’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Russian state TV on the same day, “They accuse those who brought troops from abroad (the United States) for ‘exercising unusual military activities’ in what is happening on our territory. “He said.
U.S. Secretary of State Tony Blincoln said on the 11th that “I don’t know clearly Russia’s intentions, but I know the Russian script.”
On the other hand, President Putin criticized on the 18th that the West was exacerbating the conflict situation in the Donbas (eastern Ukraine) region by providing Ukraine with modern weapons of lethality and conducting joint exercises in the Black Sea.