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Unpack the behavior of traveling-eating-shopping first….payment later…push bad debts

from the impact of the spread of the new coronavirus, orCovid-19 Has made a huge impact on the corner of the “debtor” to become even more fragile. in terms of deteriorating debt repayment ability from lost income during COVID-19
Suraphon Opassathien” general manager credit bureaufrom the information of the company National Credit Information Co., Ltd. or credit bureau said that if looking at the current household loan overview as of the second quarter of 2021 from the Bank of Thailand (BOT) data, it was found that under household debtat 14.2 trillion baht or accounted for 89.3% of household debt
andOn the scary Thai household debt is 14.2 trillion baht, 20% is for consumption. while it is a credit card loan at 7%, total of these two, accounting for 27% borrowed to “eat and use” And now have to take the income that occurs in the future Let’s pay the debt! The question is, if unemployment is shocking. Being unemployed How will these debts be paid?

Moreover, if looking at the inside of the non-performing debt or what we call “bad debt” from the portfolio of home loan, credit card, personal loan, car loan on debtor information That is on the database of “credit bureaus” at present, bad debt will have a lower rate. to 7.7% in the third quarter of 2021 from all outstanding loans of 12.5 trillion baht compared to before COVID-19 where bad debt is high at 8.1% or outstanding loans at 11.7 million baht, although bad debt is reduced today But it’s a worrying picture!
Ask why bad debt at 7.7% or total bad debt 97 hundred billion baht, today is worrying. Because today, even the debtor will be helped And under the measure, the past debts are frozen or fall into the elephant’s stomach. But if you look at bad debt at 7.7%, it is found that there has been an increase compared to the previous quarter, which was only 7.4% because banks began to release aid measures. to lead to more long-term debt restructuring from general assistance in the past start to see Bad debts have increased.

Not only that, in terms of loans classified as Special Mention. Or debts overdue less than 90 days, also known as SM, found that today it has moved up to 2.5% from 2.3%. Therefore, if looking at the debtors who have problems in both groups today is the group that is already bad debt. And debtors who have problems with outstanding debts, this debt has reached the level of 10%.
Which under 10% does not include the impact of COVID-19. Delta species that had an increased impact on debtors So these are worrisome.

even deeper Look at the debt restructuring today, up to 850 billion baht and the direction of the future. It is expected that both bad debt and debt that are in the process of debt restructuring. that is expected to reach 1 trillion baht in 2022

How old is the NPL debt mountain?
If looking at the NPL mountains of each age How are you From the credit bureau database, it was found that If we compare bad debt from 100 debtors, it is found that 100 people 20 years old have bad debt at 0.7% or 7 people out of 100 people.

While looking at the age group, the 23-year-old has 6.4 debts, and the 35-year-old has almost seven bad debts, including the 60-year-old retiree with high debt, with 7.7 bad debts out of 100.
The horror of the mountain of debt is a personal loan or Pelone! The type that borrows first, pays later, travels first, pays later, eats first, pays later, or has passed the 0% that followed today.
If looking at the number of debtors at the age of 23 on the credit bureau’s information system, it was found that 100 people were in bad debt, 22 people, meaning that in 22 people, there was at least one account that didn’t survive. It’s the NPL for the whole country. People who owe 31 million people.

Compared to 100 people, 18 people are in bad debt!
But young people 30-34 years old, such as 31 years old, there are 24 people who owe bad debt out of 100 people, which is 1 in 5 people in debt.

so these is the horror and these are mighty men. and is the person who will drive the country So if this group of people are caught in the debt trap, it will be a problem in the next phase.
Puey Ungphakorn Institute A database of credit bureaus was taken to run. It was found that from 2020 to the second quarter of 2021, it was found that we started with 500,000 problematic people, now ending in the second quarter of this year, problem debtors jumped to 1 million people with all symptoms Both in the orange, red, yellow groups, these are just the end of phase 1 aid measures and haven’t ended phase 3 aid measures. Or another shock occurred, what will happen?
It’s not over yet. If you look at the debtor entering the measure The nature of the information, phase 1 -3, those people with a total of 6 million debtors found that before he entered the project. before the epidemic that divides debtors into green, yellow, red

Especially Daeng at that time, with the number of debtors at that time, 5.3 hundred thousand, who were already NPL before COVID. already in bad debt From that date to September 2021, it’s been a year since the NPL will increase to 860,000 debtors, representing an increase of 330 thousand debtors who have been relegated from green to various reds.
These reflect that despite the aid measures Both measures 1 to 3, but there will be debtors who “Can’t go” and flowing down I want to try to imagine that Especially if this group of people are not old enough to have a responsibility to take care of their families. These will have a considerable social impact!
not only that If predicted to the next 12 months Try to pick up 3 million debtors, or 10% of the database on the credit bureaus. From the random data to run and look ahead for another 12 months, the score results were found, for example, if the score was taken in the middle of 2020, it would see the image to the debtor in the middle of the year 64 or take the data from the middle of this year, it would be seen to the picture in the next 12 months in the middle of next year
It was found that the debtor’s status, both before the covid, during the covid, after the covid, it was clearly seen that there was a movement of debt quality. From people who used to be in grade AA, their scores fall to BB, to people who are CC and CC, DD, EE flows to FF quite a lot. EE is 100 borrowers, 11 people will lose in the next 12 months, FF lends 100 people will lose 18 people and GG will lose 34-35 people, etc., so these data It tells us that How will we meet NPL?

so these It is a worrying picture. and more challenging both to the debtor and financial institutions or a financial service provider sleep in various banks That must be well prepared with “Mountain NPL” that is ready to flow in the future!

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