◀ anchor ▶
It’s an unusual situation, and it’s hard to predict at this point whether North Korea’s provocations have stopped.
Let’s look at how to see North Korea’s unprecedented behavior with Umji-in Umji-in of the Foreign Affairs and Security Team.
Reporter Um, it’s a problem with the rocket launcher firing into the buffer, but the ballistic missile was aimed directly at the sea off Sokcho by North Korea.
Wasn’t this the first such outright threat after Yeonpyeong Island was undermined?
◀ reporter ▶
In 2010, there was a provocation of undermining on Yeonpyeong Island, and in 2014, approximately 100 coastal artillery shells fell south of the NLL in the West Sea.
But ballistic missiles are different from artillery shells.
In the past, North Korea has said that it develops its own weapons whenever it fires a missile, and that it has been fired mainly in the northeast direction, such as R Island in North Hamgyong Province, to measure the distance and height of the missile and the level of threat.
Although it is said to be in the high seas, it should be considered as deliberately raising the tension in front of the territorial waters, immediately before the military conflict.
It is also unusual for South Korea and the United States to conduct a series of provocations in the middle of a large-scale joint exercise by using reconnaissance assets, while even the US nuclear submarine is in Busan.
◀ anchor ▶
Moreover, it is a time when the whole nation mourns the Itaewon disaster and the whole world watches.
Therefore, it seems that there is a possibility that North Korea would provoke to this extent.
◀ reporter ▶
Nowadays, when describing North Korea, there is no precedent that many people follow, this is the first time.
North Korea, which has a relatively weak air force, has reacted sensitively to the ROK-US fighter training.
Rather than worry about the immediate situation, the ROK-US training period is until the 4th, and it seems clear that the intention is not to let it go, and to raise the level of the military response whenever an excuse arises.
◀ anchor ▶
Looking at the recent provocations, do you think North Korea is ultimately trying to break the 9/19 military agreement?
◀ reporter ▶
It is clear that they want to break up, but it seems that the cause and the responsibility has moved south.
We didn’t just verbally declare the end of the agreement, but the agreement itself has already become worthless due to joint drills or the firing of USFK as an excuse.
They also failed to keep the 9/19 agreement through fire fighting.
Following the recent crossing of a North Korean merchant ship, he again demonstrated a pattern of past provocations that did not recognize the NLL, drawn up by the armistice agreement.
Experts believe that the 9/19 agreement goes further before the Panmunjom Declaration and the US-DPRK summit in Singapore, and that the US is holding an armed demonstration in the hope that it should be recreated from scratch.
◀ anchor ▶
It seems that the number of provocations and the intensity of the threats are gradually approaching a dangerous level, but will North Korea go for a nuclear test in the end? Or you could launch another taunt.
◀ reporter ▶
North Korea’s latest announcements seem to indicate that concerns are greater than ever.
After the Ministry of Foreign Affairs raised the phrase “the next strengthening step” aimed at the ROK-US exercise, today, the vice chairman of the Party’s Central Military Commission, which oversees military policy practices, came forward.
“You will face a tremendous event and pay the most terrible price,” he said.
In terms of timing, in China, President Xi Jinping has confirmed a three-term system, and US President Biden is about to hold a mid-term election. Externally, the US is clashing with China over Russia and Taiwan issues Ukraine.
It is very likely that North Korea will continue its local provocations using Russia and China as a shield.
Military authorities are keeping a close eye on military movements, particularly around the West Sea NLL.
It seems that preparations for the launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile or the 7th nuclear test have already been completed, but since this is a matter directly aimed at the United States, North Korea is also likely considering various variables.
(It seems clear that he was unusual. He was Umji-in’s correspondent.)
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