“US 4Q growth rate exceeds expectations, inventory illusion … positive for Korea and China”

[이데일리 김보겸 기자] Analysts say the US growth rate in the fourth quarter was an optical illusion caused by inventory build-up. In terms of contribution to growth, private consumption contributes more to the growth aspect than factors that affect economic growth trends such as government spending and net exports. Korea and China are expected to have more positive movements than expected this year.

In a report on the 31st, Yuanta Securities said, “The growth rate of the United States in the fourth quarter of last year grew by 2.9% compared to the previous quarter, which is much higher than the market forecast of 2.6%.” The recession is a clouded judgment,” he said.

However, this is analyzed to be an optical illusion due to inventory build-up. Jeong Won-il, a researcher at Yuanta Securities, said, “As for the contribution to the 2.9% growth, it is difficult to judge that the normal growth trend is maintained as inventory accumulation contributed 1.4% rather than factors that affects the economy. growth trend, such as private consumption, government spending and net exports.” he said.

It is also worrisome that investment items continue to shrink despite inventory build-up, Jung said. He explained, “Companies are preparing for the fallout and preparations for the economic recession first from a company perspective.”

As a result, it was found that the growth rate could be revised down in the fourth quarter growth rate of the United States. It is explained that the change in policy stance can also be accelerated due to the recent weakening in sentiment and falling prices.

Contrary to the US growth trend, China and Korea are expected to be positive. “In the case of China, expectations for the resumption of economic activities and production following the reopening have begun to be reflected,” Jung said. As the People’s Bank of China announced plans to reduce the cost of raising funds to the market this year and to supply social loans and liquidity, the growth trend could accelerate faster than market expectations.

Researcher Jeong said, “For South Korea, where exports to China are important, China’s policy stance is good news.” It can continue,” he said.

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