Goldman Sachs Group economists have said the US monetary authorities are at risk of tightening monetary policy at every Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting starting in March. It’s a more aggressive approach than Goldman currently expects.
Goldman economists, including Jan Hatchius, are weekend customer reports, and the company is currently announcing the start of balance sheet compression in July, in addition to rate hikes in March, June, September and December. He pointed out that he expects to be there.
However, given the upward pressure on inflation, “risk is somewhat sloping above our baseline,” and monetary authorities may tighten at “every meeting until inflation changes.” I commented that there is also.
He added, “This highlights the possibility of an additional rate hike or a balance sheet announcement ahead of May, with more than four rate hikes this year.” “We can envision some potential triggers that will lead to a shift to rate hikes at each meeting in a row.”
The FOMC meeting is scheduled to be held on the 25th and 26th, and there are widespread observations that officials such as the chairman of the Federal Reserve Board (FRB) Powell suggest that the zero interest rate policy may be lifted in March.
Higher Rates Coming
Fed rate liftoff is likely in March and rates may rise gradually in 2023
Bloomberg survey of economists Jan. 14-19
Goldman economists cited further rises in long-term inflation expectations and new inflation surprises as potential factors driving further monetary tightening. He explained that the company has already become more concerned about the outlook for inflation due to the spread of infection with the Omicron variant of the new coronavirus and the sustained strength of wage increases.
news-rsf-original-reference paywall">Original title:
news-rsf-original-reference paywall">Goldman Sees Risk Fed Will Tighten at Every Meeting From March（抜粋）
