Fourth quarter US GDP beat expectations…
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[인포스탁데일리=박상철 기자] The US economy showed solid growth in the fourth quarter following the third quarter of last year, but there are concerns that it will grow negatively this year.
The US Department of Commerce announced on the 26th local time that the GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter of last year was 2.9% per annum. This was slightly higher than experts’ forecasts.
The details are a bit mixed. The use of face-to-face activities continued despite the tightening shock, and the trend towards improved use was robust. Personal consumption expenditure increased by 2.1%, driving overall growth.
However, the slowdown in investment intensified mainly in the residential and equipment sectors. Residential fixed investment increased by 26.7 per cent, reflecting the downturn in the housing market. In addition, exports, which increased in the second quarter, mainly in energy, fell in the third quarter.
Despite such a favorable growth rate, concerns about slowing growth are increasing due to this year’s tightening shock.
Ha Geon-hyung, a researcher at Shinhan Investment & Securities, pointed out that, “The shock of austerity has started to be reflected in the corporate investment sector following housing,” and “the slowdown in growth after the start of the year inevitably.”
Researcher Ha pointed out that “the lower end of growth will be supported as long as the job market continues to improve,” but that “the decline in growth could accelerate from the second quarter when the an employment boom supported by pent-up demand is over.”
Lee Da-eun, a researcher at Daishin Securities, said, “Looking at GDP in the fourth quarter in detail, the momentum of personal consumption, which is the basis, has slowed down, except for the temporary factor caused by the increase or discount. in inventory.”
Researcher Lee noted, “Given corporate comments and an increase in N jobs in the job market, the slowdown in consumption due to the decline in purchasing power of the low-income class began in earnest from the end of the fourth quarter.”
“The US economy in the first half of this year is very likely to show negative growth again due to sluggish consumption and the resulting decline in the manufacturing industry,” he added.
Reporter Park Sang-cheol 3fe94@infostock.co.kr
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