US economic growth in October-December last year (fourth quarter) accelerated faster than the market expected. The resumption of inventory buildup contributed. It was the highest growth since 1984 for the whole year.
| Key Point |
|---|
|
GDP change rate transition (light blue bar graph), personal consumption change rate transition (white line graph)
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bloomberg Survey
The GDP contribution of inventory is 4.9 points. Inventories are expected to continue to be a tailwind for economic growth this year. Due to a prolonged supply shortage, companies have responded to strong demand with inventories last year. Companies have begun to resume inventory buildup, which is expected to boost production.
Changes in inventory GDP contribution (light blue bar graph), changes in final demand (white line graph)
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Private consumption, which accounts for the largest part of GDP, increased by 3.3%, which is almost the same as the market forecast (3.4%). Growth accelerated from a 2% increase in the previous quarter.
The core consumer spending (PCE) price index, excluding energy and food, which the US financial authorities are paying attention to, has risen 4.9% annually.
Final demand, excluding net exports and inventories from GDP, rose 1.9%, slightly above the third quarter (1.3%).
Inflation-adjusted capital investment remained relatively restrained. Non-residential capital investment increased by 2%. Intellectual property showed high growth, while constructions were negative. Housing investment and government spending have fallen.
The contribution of net exports is zero. While imports of goods reached a record high in December, exports of services also increased significantly. It reflects the increase in travelers from outside the United States.
In terms of consumption, the shortage of automobile supply continued to weigh on. The contribution of automobiles has been negative since the third quarter. While demand is strong, semiconductor shortages continue, pushing up prices.
GDP for the full year 2021 will increase by 5.7% year-on-year after adjusting for inflation. This is the highest growth since 1984. Private consumption increased by 7.9%, the highest growth rate since 1946.
See the table for details on statistics.
Original title:U.S. Economic Growth Quickened Last Quarter With Inventory Boost（抜粋）
(Add and update statistics details)
.jpg?fit=300%2C300&ssl=1)
