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US Jobs Report Shows Average Hourly Earnings Slowed in December

The US employment report last December showed continued strong employment growth, but wage growth slowed. It gave the Fed room to slow the pace of rate hikes while eliminating the possibility of an imminent recession.

Key Point
  • Non-farm payrolls (business premises survey, seasonally adjusted) increased by 223,000 from the previous month
    • The median economist expects an increase of 203,000 jobs.
    • Downward revision to an increase of 256,000 in the previous month (preliminary increase of 263,000)
  • Unemployment rate hits 50-year low at 3.5%, according to household surveys
    • Market expectation 3.7%
    • Revised to 3.6% in the previous month (preliminary figure of 3.7%)

The average hourly wage increased by 0.3% from the previous month (market expectations increased by 0.4%), and increased by 4.6% from the same month last year. Both figures for November were revised downwards. The Fed will likely welcome a slowdown in average hourly earnings growth. Officials see wage pressures, particularly in the services sector, as a major obstacle to returning inflation to the 2% target.

Employment growth was led by sectors such as healthcare, social assistance, entertainment and hospitality, and construction. There was little change in some sectors from the previous month.

“The Fed doesn’t want jobs to slow down. “It’s a slowdown in inflation because we’re worried about continued inflation,” he said. The statistic “could have made it more likely that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in February and March would raise interest rates by 25 basis points rather than 50 basis points (bp = 0.01%)). ” he said.

Bloomberg Economics (BE) economists Ana Wong and Eliza Winger said: “December’s nonfarm numbers look like Goldilocks, not too hot, not too cold, even as the labor force grows. “Strong employment has pushed unemployment down, but wage growth has slowed. Labor market momentum weakened slightly towards the end of last year, but may be picking up again.”

Although job openings remain high and layoffs generally low, weakness in the labor market is beginning to emerge in some sectors, such as technology and real estate. According to the latest statistics, employment fell in non-durable goods manufacturing, temporary staffing, and information processing.

Average weekly hours worked were the lowest since immediately after the coronavirus pandemic.