Former U.S. President Barack Obama campaigns for support of Democratic nominee Terry McCullough (right) running for governor of Virginia in Richmond, Virginia, on February 23, 2019. Richmond | Associated Press
As the election to elect the governor of Virginia is less than a week away, the attention of American politicians is on the rise. The election result, which is to elect a new governor of Virginia, where the Democratic Party has been strong in various elections for more than a decade, will have a significant impact on the administration of US President Joe Biden as his first year in office is coming to an end. This is because it has the characteristics of a weather vane of A glimpse into the evaluation of US voters for former President Donald Trump, who lost the last presidential election but still acts as a variable in US politics, and for President Biden, whose approval ratings fell due to the withdrawal of Afghanistan, the spread of delta mutations, and inflation. It is also an occasion.
Democratic nominee Terry McCulliff, 64, and Republican nominee Glenn Youngkin, 55, met Republican nominee Glenn Youngkin, 55, as Democratic governor Ralph Northam gave up his run for reelection. McCulliff, who served as governor of Virginia from 2014 to 2018, is running for re-election. He has served as former President Bill Clinton’s re-election campaign head, Democratic National Committee (DNC) chairman, and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign head. Youngkin served as CEO of the multinational private equity firm Carlyle Group, and this is his first run for public office.
The election, scheduled for the 2nd of next month (local time), is in the fog. In the average polls compiled by political analysis media such as Five Thirteen and Real Clear Politics, McCulliff leads Youngkin by 2.2 percentage points and 1.8 percentage points, respectively, but in a Monmouth University poll released last week, the two candidates’ approval ratings were 46 percent. The gap between the approval ratings has been extremely narrowed.
Virginia, which borders the US capital, Washington, has traditionally been a strong Republican region, but the Democratic Party has been strong for more than 10 years since the 2008 presidential election, with the Democrats winning 4 times in a row and the Democrats winning 4 times in the previous 5 governor elections. In the last presidential election, President Biden defeated former President Trump by more than 10 percentage points in Virginia.
Democrats expected to win the governor’s election this year, but as the situation turned to a close match, former President Barack Obama launched a campaign for support on the 23rd. As he campaigned for McCulliff in various parts of Virginia, he encouraged voters to vote, saying, “This election will determine the direction Virginia and our country will go for generations to come.” First Lady Jill Biden has already campaigned for McCulliff, and President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris are also expected to support McCulliff this week. Candidate Youngkin and the Republican Party responded that it was not bad, saying that it was reflecting McCulliff’s inferiority in the high-flying battle with the Democratic Party’s ‘national star’. In fact, in a Munmos University survey, 49% of Republican-leaning voters were actively voting, while only 26% of Democratic-leaning voters were actively voting.
Although it is an election for governor, this election, which is held a year after last year’s presidential election, feels like an indirect election for President Biden and former President Trump. In this election, the Democratic Party was thoroughly consistent with ‘Trump fear’ marketing. Former President Trump officially supported Youngkin, and Youngkin also welcomed Trump’s support, so he mobilized the ‘Youngkin = Trump’ frame. It was aimed at Democrat voters in an attempt to recall Trump’s radical politics and the resulting chaos.
On the other hand, Youngkin’s side is stabbing President Biden’s pain points, including the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, the spread of the COVID-19 delta mutation, and concerns about skyrocketing oil prices and inflation. In addition to the policies that the Democrats and Republicans have traditionally confronted, such as tax cuts, abortion, and gun control, the two candidates are sharply opposed to recent issues such as quarantine measures such as mandatory COVID-19 vaccination, and education on ‘critical race theory’.
No matter what the outcome of this election, it will be evaluated as a weather vane for the US midterm election, which is one year away. Midterm elections in the United States have traditionally been unfavorable to the incumbent president and the ruling party. Democrats control the House and Senate, but have a slight advantage in the House and the Senate. For Democrats who must maintain their majority in the House and Senate, even if they win the Virginia governor election, it is a major blow, but if they lose, the prospects for the midterm elections will turn red. If Republicans catch the ‘big fish’ of winning the Virginia governor election, they will be able to prepare an important stepping stone to retake the House and Senate in next year’s midterm elections.
It is also a point to watch how much Trump’s variable will work. The Washington Post said, “The Virginia governor election is an opportunity to test the Trump fear factor as a factor in stimulating political mobilization.”
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