Response to allies and export controls to Russia
EU warns of ‘unprecedented preparations for sanctions’
Russia threatens hegemony when occupying Ukraine
Possibility of China’s invasion of Taiwan
Putin dissatisfied with NATO influence
Concerns over Ukraine’s democratic prosperity
A Ukrainian soldier monitors rebel movements with a telescope in the trenches of the Korliuka (Gorlovka) front in eastern Donetsk province, during a confrontation with pro-Russian separatist rebels on the 23rd (local time). Horliuka = AFP Yonhap News
The situation in Ukraine is tense. As Russia and Western countries increase military deployments in Ukraine and surrounding areas, on the 23rd (local time), following Russia, the United States also evacuated the families of its embassy employees in Ukraine. By synthesizing foreign media reports, the main contents related to the recent situation in Ukraine have been summarized in a question-and-answer format.
Why does Russian President Vladimir Putin threaten Ukraine?
“President Putin’s intentions are unknown. However, his nostalgia for the former Soviet Union and analysis that links Ukraine’s pro-Western policy lines are dominant. Ukraine’s independence is considered a painful loss for Russia. Ukraine is the second most populous country after Russia among the 15 countries of the Soviet bloc, and is a major exporter of wheat and other grains. In addition, it borders about 1931 km with Russia and has deep social and cultural ties with Russia as Russian is widely used. Last year, Putin called Russia and Ukraine ‘one nation’. It is similar to China’s position, which insists on the ‘one China’ principle and views Taiwan as part of its territory.
Some explain that Putin is afraid of Ukraine’s democratic prosperity. Because such a situation could be seen by Russians as an alternative to Putin’s dictatorship.”
US President Joe Biden (left) and Russian President Vladimir Putin. AP Yonhap News
– What President Putin is asking NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization).
“We oppose Ukraine’s accession to NATO and demand the withdrawal of NATO forces from Eastern Europe. This means that Eastern European countries return to their borders before joining NATO in 1997, that is, NATO combat units will be withdrawn from Poland and the Baltic States, and NATO missiles will not be deployed in countries such as Poland and Romania. It is unlikely that NATO’s 30 member countries will accept such a requirement.”
-Why is the US anxious?
“If Russia invades Ukraine and succeeds, it can establish itself as a hegemon in Eastern Europe. It could also heighten security concerns in other democracies, such as China’s invasion of Taiwan.”
– The possibility of war between Russia and Ukraine.
“Russia says it has no plans to attack. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reiterated this position in a press conference after meeting with US Secretary of State Tony Blincoln on the 21st. However, at the end of last year, Putin threatened to take military and technological measures if the West’s aggressive course continues. Some view the possibility of war with skepticism, saying that the Russians are not ready for war. Some analysts warn that war is likely. Putin has lost patience with Ukraine. Considering that he will have a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the 4th of next month, when the Beijing Winter Olympics begin, there are also observations that if Russia invades, it will be after the end of next month.”
Satellite imagery provided by Maxa Technologies shows Russian military vehicles gather at the Pogonovo training ground in Voronezh, Russia on the 19th (local time). Voronezh = AP News
– What preparations are the West, including the United States, preparing?
“NATO member states have announced that they will step up their military capabilities in Eastern Europe, including fighters, one after another. Western countries are also preparing to provide weapons to Ukraine, which is militarily inferior, or to sanction Russia. On the 23rd, the U.S. started to supply a second weapon in excess of 80 tons to Ukraine. “This is not the end,” Ukrainian Defense Minister Olexi Rezhnikov said. The Washington Post reported that the U.S. would impose export controls that would harm Russia’s strategic industries such as civil aerospace, quantum computers and artificial intelligence (AI) if Russia invades Ukraine. The plan the White House is considering export control measures against Russia is said to be similar to the sanctions imposed by the former Donald Trump administration on Huawei, China’s largest telecommunication equipment maker, to contain China. It’s about disrupting the supply chain.
The European Union (EU) also predicted harsher economic sanctions than when Russia forcibly annexed Ukraine’s Crimea in 2014. Danish Foreign Minister Yepe Koford warned on the 24th that “If Russia invades Ukraine again, we (EU) are prepared to respond with comprehensive and unprecedented sanctions.” It did not say which sectors would be subject to sanctions.
There is also talk of excluding Russia from the SWIFT and blocking the opening of Nord Stream 2, a natural gas pipeline project with Germany.”
―If Russia invades Ukraine, the possibility of Western military intervention.
“not big. The U.S. is said to have no plans to send combat troops to Ukraine.”
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