US retail sales jump for first time in eight months as rate hike debate intensifies – Bloomberg

US retail sales rose more than expected in October, marking the fastest growth in eight months. It suggests that overall demand for goods is holding up even as inflation hits its highest level for decades and the economic outlook deteriorates.

Key Point
  • US retail sales up 1.3% month over month
    • The median economist forecast is an increase of 1.0%.
    • last month was flat
  • An increase of 0.9% on a basis excluding gasoline and automobiles
    • These data have not been adjusted for inflation

Blue is retail sales, white is retail sales excluding gasoline and automobiles (both change from month to month)

Source: US Census Bureau

In October, out of 13 categories, nine increased, including car dealers, grocery stores, and restaurants. Gas station sales increased by 4.1%. This mainly reflects the increase in gasoline prices.

The data suggest that the US economy got off to a strong start in the fourth quarter, with consumption remaining strong overall. But some Fed officials have argued for slowing rate increases in the coming months, and strong economic data could complicate those discussions.

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