Thursday (24th) is Thanksgiving in the US, and all US financial markets, including the stock market, are closed for the day. Trading on Friday is only half a day, and the market closes at 1:00 pm local time, which equates to 22:30 on Friday night and 2:00 am on Saturday, Taipei time, 3 hours earlier than usual.
This year, before Thanksgiving and Black Friday, US stocks rose for two consecutive days. Market sentiment was boosted by the minutes of the Fed’s latest meeting, which suggested the Fed may slow the pace of rate hikes.
Historically, after Thanksgiving, merchants also prepare for the year-end holidays.
From the close on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving through the end of the year, the S&P 500 has risen about three-quarters of the time, averaging 1.93%, according to Bespoke Investment Group.
But further considering the year with a decline of at least 10% throughout the year, the probability of a positive return from Thanksgiving to the end of the year has decreased to about 50%, with an average decrease of 0.1%.
