Western-Russia, ‘the biggest labyrinth’ after the Cold War… A pretext for aggression? Establishing a new order? – Cheonji Ilbo

[천지일보=이솜 기자] The failure of high-level diplomatic talks to resolve the Ukraine crisis last week put Russia, the United States and European allies facing an unknown post-Cold War situation.

Unlike previous conflicts that occurred after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the current difference in positions between the US and Russia poses a real risk of causing a military clash, raising concerns.

The world’s attention is focused on whether US President Joe Biden can come up with a solution as the military crisis escalates as the Russian government takes a hardline stance every day.

Russia’s core request not accepted

On the 10th and 13th, the US and the West held three rounds of talks over the Ukraine crisis in Switzerland, Belgium and Austria. The United States and Russia met on the 10th, NATO and Russia on the 12th, the European Organization for Security and Cooperation (OSCE) standing board meeting on the 13th, and the United States and Russia, all of which ended with only checking differences in positions.

The West and Russia have started talks as Russia has deployed 100,000 troops on the Ukrainian border and fears of aggression have grown. The Russian government sent security guarantees to the West as a condition of easing the crisis at the Ukraine border, and the two sides tried to coordinate the deal through talks. The security list includes a legally binding requirement that NATO will never allow accession to former Soviet countries, including Ukraine, and withdraw NATO forces from Central and Eastern European countries that have joined the alliance since the Cold War. promises are included. Earlier, the US side expressed that Russia’s request was ‘before it’, but said it was willing to hold talks with NATO on arms control, missile deployment, and confidence-building measures. However, Russia’s priority was to further accession and expansion of NATO, and there was no discussion on this issue.

Eventually, Russian officials announced that the security talks had failed. A high-ranking Russian official held talks on the 15th (local time) in the Washington Post (WP) after the United States and NATO flatly refused to ban countries such as Ukraine and Georgia, including Sweden and Finland, which are key Russia’s requirements, from joining NATO. He lamented that it was meaningless to continue, saying, “We are at a dead end.”

“Russia is low on patience… Remember Cuba.”

Conflicts seem to have been amplified by this series of talks.

Military analysts pointed out the recent movements of military logistical units and attack helicopter units, and analyzed that the failure of the talks meant the threat of war had grown. “The outlook has gotten worse in my opinion,” Michael Kaufman, a Russian military expert at the nonprofit research organization CNA, tweeted on the same day.

After the talks, Russia pressured the West to accept their request, even referring to the situation in which the Soviet Union tried to deploy nuclear missiles aimed at the United States in Cuba in 1962. It is a warning that if the negotiations ultimately fail, they could deploy troops to Cuba or Venezuela in Latin America.

On the 14th, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov requested a ‘written response’ on the security guarantees proposed by the US and Europe. “I have run out of patience,” he said. “Do you know how long it will take Russia to harness a horse? We harness it slowly, but after that it’s time to ride.” The Russian government also announced on the same day an immediate check on the readiness of military units in the Far East for long-distance movement.

There are also observations that Russia’s diplomacy surrounding the current situation is different from before, so it may be Russia’s pretext to wage war. Typically, these security talks are held in private and hold a long breath, and diplomats often show flexibility during negotiations. However, Russia has made all of this public, leaving no room for negotiations, demanding a speedy agreement. This is speculation that Russia may have caused the talks to fail in order to create an excuse for military action. Russian officials questioned whether talks could continue from the first day of talks on the 10th. U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan claimed that this was “the playbook (tactics) we saw in 2014, and they[Russia]are preparing it again.”

Ukraine’s Destiny Depends on Putin

There are various observations as to whether or not the current difficulties can be overcome. Some have diagnosed that a meaningful solution can only be achieved when the situation is much worse than it is now.

Russia’s political analyst Fyodor Rukyanov said in a commentary on the same day that “the gap in perception is so great that a new and risky escalation may be necessary in order for the parties to be creative and seek consensus.” Rukianov also analyzed that the fact that the talks did not break down immediately means that both sides may have seen a way to a result that is not currently visible from the outside.

There are speculations that the attack may have already begun. cyber and information attacks.

Experts have recently reported an increase in cyberattacks against Ukraine, and many websites of Ukrainian government ministries were downed by large-scale international hacking on the same day. In response, the United States said that it had received information that Russia had deployed operatives to create a justification for the invasion of Ukraine and carried out a ‘self-made attack’, but Russia categorically denied this.

In an online presentation held on the 12th at the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University, Kaufman predicted that the Russian military could conduct large-scale military operations against Ukraine, including artillery, multiple rocket launchers, air force, and attack helicopters. He analyzed that Russia would use overwhelming force to obtain a speedy surrender from Ukraine. Analysts also suggested other possibilities, according to the WP. The occupation of southern Ukraine, which connects Crimea with Russia by land, or, in the worst case, a multifaceted attack that divides Ukraine in two and captures all territories east of the Dnieper River that crosses the center of the country and redraws the map.

Although the Russian government has expressed that “the ball is now in the United States,” everyone knows that the course of the current situation is ultimately up to President Vladimir Putin. On the same day, NATO and US Secretary of State Tony Blincoln urged dialogue and diplomacy, suggesting that they were waiting for Putin.

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