What did Liu know?Selling goods again and cashing out 500 million analysts: 3 most likely ways for Evergrande | Investment | Economic Week

Evergrande has not fallen to the bottom

Although Evergrande’s debt is huge, just looking at financial data, it has not yet reached the point of “insolvency.”

According to Evergrande’s financial report, its current land bank value reaches 456.8 billion yuan, plus 146 old renovation projects, the total value is nearly 2 trillion yuan. In addition, there are many commercial real estates and shares held, such as the headquarters building in Hong Kong, which has been worth 10 billion.

However, according to Reuters analysis, if Evergrande wants to restore the situation, it must find a buyer for its assets. But this is almost an “impossible task,” because potential buyers wait until Evergrande can’t support it.

“Hengda has three ways out: first, the embarrassment of the bankruptcy will have a profound impact; second, the orderly bankruptcy; third, the government will help.” But Reuters said frankly, “the third possibility is relatively slim.”

Analysis: It is expected that Hengda will not be saved for state-owned enterprises

James Shi, a non-performing debt analyst at Reorg, a credit analysis agency, said: “The government has been working hard to promote deleveraging in the real estate industry, so it is now unlikely that Evergrande will be rescued.”

And Nomura analyst Iris Chen also said: “We don’t believe that the government has the motivation to save Evergrande (Hengda is a private enterprise).”

He continued to point out that in the debt default incidents of several state-owned enterprises at the end of last year, the Chinese government seemed to have broken the rule of “state-owned enterprise belief” and let go of “zombie enterprises” that were insolvent and lacked market competitiveness. It is also so “cruel” to state-owned enterprises, and how likely is it to be rescued by treating a private enterprise?

In retrospect, in the crisis of HNA Group and Anbang, the Chinese government finally came forward and dispatched working groups to settle assets. But this road is more like “orderly bankruptcy.”

Iris Chen also said, “In our opinion, the government will not take the initiative to let Evergrande go bankrupt. Even if it goes bankrupt, it hopes to go bankrupt in an orderly manner.”

Liu’s secret shipments in recent months have cashed out more than 500 million

Evergrande’s life and death are uncertain. As its loyal fans, Liu Luanxiong and his wife, “Da Liu”, have also begun to secretly reduce their holdings.

According to data, Chen Kaiyun (Gambi) reduced his holdings of 24.436 million shares of China Evergrande last Friday (10th), with an average price of 3.5812 yuan per share and a maximum price of 3.75 yuan per share, and cashed out more than 87 million yuan.

After the sale this time, Liu Luanxiong and his wife Evergrande’s shareholding fell from 8.15% to 7.96%. Gambi had already started selling goods on the 26th of last month, when the two still held 1.187 billion shares after declaring their shareholding reduction. This means that in less than a month, the two have reduced their holdings by more than 130 million shares, and have cashed out about 500 million yuan since August.